Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie D / Monte Roraima vs Guaporé

Prediction Audit: Monte Roraima vs Guaporé Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Monte Roraima Monte Roraima
Jun 20, 2026 - 21:00
3 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Guaporé Guaporé

AI correctly predicted the Monte Roraima win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Monte Roraima Monte Roraima ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Guaporé considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Guaporé +6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Monte Roraima 37.0% 37.6% -0.6 pp Aligned
Draw 30.8% 36.7% -5.8 pp Market Higher
Guaporé 32.2% 25.7% +6.5 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Guaporé's win probability at 32.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.7%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Monte Roraima win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Guaporé.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Monte Roraima more conservatively (30.5% vs model 37.0%, 6.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Monte Roraima win 3–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 21:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Monte Roraima 37.0% · Draw 30.9% · Guaporé 32.1%
    • xG · Monte Roraima 1.32 — Guaporé 1.28
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Monte Roraima 2.41 · Draw 2.47 · Guaporé 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Monte Roraima 37.6% · Draw 36.7% · Guaporé 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 20, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Monte Roraima 2.41 · Draw 2.47 · Guaporé 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Monte Roraima 37.6% · Draw 36.7% · Guaporé 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 20, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Monte Roraima win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 03:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2566491

Closing Odds 3.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Monte Roraima win · Monte Roraima 3–2 Guaporé
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie D
  • Fixture: Monte Roraima vs Guaporé
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 30.9% · Away 32.1%
  • xG (showing): Monte Roraima 1.32 — Guaporé 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie D Serie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manauara 10 6 4 0 22
2 Nacional AM 10 6 2 2 20
3 Sao Raimundo 10 3 4 3 13
4 Monte Roraima 10 2 4 4 10
5 Manaus FC 10 2 4 4 10
6 GAS 10 1 2 7 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nacional AM 10 15 9 +6 20
2 Manauara 10 13 5 +8 22
3 Monte Roraima 10 11 14 -3 10
4 Sao Raimundo 10 10 7 +3 13
5 Manaus FC 10 8 13 -5 10
6 GAS 10 8 17 -9 5