Prediction Audit: Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vojvodina

Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.66

1 1.47

xG Accuracy: 73%

IMT Novi Beograd

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Vojvodina at 45.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Vojvodina Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vojvodina	45.2%	56.9%	-11.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	26.0%	23.6%	+2.4 pp	Aligned
IMT Novi Beograd	28.8%	19.5%	+9.3 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Vojvodina's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.2%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Vojvodina than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
1X2: model leaned Vojvodina; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vojvodina by 11.7 percentage points (56.9% vs model 45.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vojvodina 45.2% · Draw 26.0% · IMT Novi Beograd 28.8%
- xG · Vojvodina 1.66 — IMT Novi Beograd 1.47
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vojvodina 1.63 · Draw 3.92 · IMT Novi Beograd 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Vojvodina 56.9% · Draw 23.6% · IMT Novi Beograd 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vojvodina 1.63 · Draw 3.92 · IMT Novi Beograd 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Vojvodina 56.9% · Draw 23.6% · IMT Novi Beograd 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8701670

Closing Odds 1.63

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Vojvodina 1–1 IMT Novi Beograd

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Super Liga
Fixture: Vojvodina vs IMT Novi Beograd
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Vojvodina 1.66 — IMT Novi Beograd 1.47 (total xG ≈ 3.13)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	9	1	0	28
2	Vojvodina	10	7	1	2	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	5	2	2	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	4	4	2	16
5	IMT Novi Beograd	10	4	3	3	15
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	4	2	3	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	10	3	5	2	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	3	4	3	13
9	Cukaricki	10	3	2	5	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	2	3	5	9
11	FK Partizan	9	2	2	5	8
12	Radnicki NIS	9	2	2	5	8
13	Macva	10	2	2	6	8
14	Zemun	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	24	3	+21	28
2	Vojvodina	10	21	10	+11	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	17	9	+8	17
4	FK Partizan	9	17	19	-2	8
5	Železničar Pančevo	9	14	10	+4	14
6	Radnik Surdulica	10	14	15	-1	14
7	OFK Beograd	10	13	21	-8	9
8	IMT Novi Beograd	10	12	7	+5	15
9	Cukaricki	10	12	18	-6	11
10	Novi Pazar	10	10	11	-1	13
11	Mladost Lucani	10	10	12	-2	16
12	Radnicki NIS	9	6	11	-5	8
13	Macva	10	6	17	-11	8
14	Zemun	10	6	19	-13	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vojvodina	10	7.0	1.1	+5.9	22
2	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	5.9	1.2	+4.7	28
3	Radnicki 1923	9	1.9	1.1	+0.8	17
4	FK Partizan	9	3.7	3.1	+0.6	8
5	Cukaricki	10	1.8	1.4	+0.4	11
6	Radnik Surdulica	10	0.8	0.5	+0.3	14
7	Radnicki NIS	9	1.1	0.9	+0.2	8
8	Železničar Pančevo	9	0.9	1.1	-0.2	14
9	IMT Novi Beograd	10	1.4	1.8	-0.4	15
10	Novi Pazar	10	1.1	1.9	-0.8	13
11	OFK Beograd	10	0.3	2.1	-1.8	9
12	Macva	10	0.5	4.7	-4.2	8
13	Zemun	10	1.9	7.4	-5.5	3
14	Mladost Lucani	10	—	—	—	16