Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan

Prediction Audit: Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani
Aug 23, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.00
1 1.86
xG Accuracy: 46%
FK Partizan FK Partizan

The model missed the final outcome (Mladost Lucani win 3–1).

The model had projected FK Partizan at 55.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Partizan Mladost Lucani ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: FK Partizan +3.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mladost Lucani 19.3% 22.3% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 25.4% 25.6% -0.3 pp Aligned
FK Partizan 55.3% 52.1% +3.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mladost Lucani win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.86) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FK Partizan; match finished Mladost Lucani
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Mladost Lucani win 3–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mladost Lucani 19.4% · Draw 25.4% · FK Partizan 55.3%
    • xG · Mladost Lucani 1.00 — FK Partizan 1.86
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mladost Lucani 4.16 · Draw 3.62 · FK Partizan 1.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Mladost Lucani 22.3% · Draw 25.6% · FK Partizan 52.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mladost Lucani 4.16 · Draw 3.62 · FK Partizan 1.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Mladost Lucani 22.3% · Draw 25.6% · FK Partizan 52.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mladost Lucani win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 83/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4236696

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mladost Lucani win · Mladost Lucani 3–1 FK Partizan
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Mladost Lucani vs FK Partizan
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.4% · Draw 25.4% · Away 55.3%
  • xG (showing): Mladost Lucani 1.0 — FK Partizan 1.86 (total xG ≈ 2.86)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.5% · Over 2.5 54.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.8% · No 45.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.8% · No 45.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (10.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16