Prediction Audit: Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vojvodina

Aug 09, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.17

1 0.93

xG Accuracy: 78%

Radnik Surdulica

AI correctly predicted the Vojvodina win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vojvodina Vojvodina ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vojvodina	46.0%	71.2%	-25.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	30.8%	18.4%	+12.4 pp	Model Edge
Radnik Surdulica	23.2%	10.3%	+12.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Vojvodina's win probability at 71.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.0%, a difference of 25.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vojvodina win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vojvodina higher (71.2% vs model 46.0%, 25.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vojvodina win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vojvodina 46.1% · Draw 30.8% · Radnik Surdulica 23.1%
- xG · Vojvodina 1.17 — Radnik Surdulica 0.93
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vojvodina 1.29 · Draw 4.99 · Radnik Surdulica 8.89
- Implied 1X2 · Vojvodina 71.2% · Draw 18.4% · Radnik Surdulica 10.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vojvodina 1.29 · Draw 4.99 · Radnik Surdulica 8.89
- Implied 1X2 · Vojvodina 71.2% · Draw 18.4% · Radnik Surdulica 10.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Vojvodina win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (25 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2825522

Closing Odds 1.29

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vojvodina win · Vojvodina 2–1 Radnik Surdulica

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Super Liga
Fixture: Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 46.1% · Draw 30.8% · Away 23.2%
xG (showing): Vojvodina 1.17 — Radnik Surdulica 0.93 (total xG ≈ 2.1)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.0% · Over 2.5 35.0%); BTTS No (Yes 43.5% · No 56.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 43.5% · No 56.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	9	1	0	28
2	Vojvodina	10	7	1	2	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	5	2	2	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	4	4	2	16
5	IMT Novi Beograd	10	4	3	3	15
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	4	2	3	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	10	3	5	2	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	3	4	3	13
9	Cukaricki	10	3	2	5	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	2	3	5	9
11	FK Partizan	9	2	2	5	8
12	Radnicki NIS	9	2	2	5	8
13	Macva	10	2	2	6	8
14	Zemun	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	24	3	+21	28
2	Vojvodina	10	21	10	+11	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	17	9	+8	17
4	FK Partizan	9	17	19	-2	8
5	Železničar Pančevo	9	14	10	+4	14
6	Radnik Surdulica	10	14	15	-1	14
7	OFK Beograd	10	13	21	-8	9
8	IMT Novi Beograd	10	12	7	+5	15
9	Cukaricki	10	12	18	-6	11
10	Novi Pazar	10	10	11	-1	13
11	Mladost Lucani	10	10	12	-2	16
12	Radnicki NIS	9	6	11	-5	8
13	Macva	10	6	17	-11	8
14	Zemun	10	6	19	-13	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vojvodina	10	7.0	1.1	+5.9	22
2	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	5.9	1.2	+4.7	28
3	Radnicki 1923	9	1.9	1.1	+0.8	17
4	FK Partizan	9	3.7	3.1	+0.6	8
5	Cukaricki	10	1.8	1.4	+0.4	11
6	Radnik Surdulica	10	0.8	0.5	+0.3	14
7	Radnicki NIS	9	1.1	0.9	+0.2	8
8	Železničar Pančevo	9	0.9	1.1	-0.2	14
9	IMT Novi Beograd	10	1.4	1.8	-0.4	15
10	Novi Pazar	10	1.1	1.9	-0.8	13
11	OFK Beograd	10	0.3	2.1	-1.8	9
12	Macva	10	0.5	4.7	-4.2	8
13	Zemun	10	1.9	7.4	-5.5	3
14	Mladost Lucani	10	—	—	—	16