Prediction Audit: Macva vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Macva

Aug 09, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.54

0 1.49

xG Accuracy: 57%

IMT Novi Beograd

The model missed the final outcome (Macva win 1–0).

The model had projected IMT Novi Beograd at 39.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 IMT Novi Beograd Macva ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Macva	32.9%	23.3%	+9.6 pp	Model Higher
Draw	27.7%	28.1%	-0.4 pp	Aligned
IMT Novi Beograd	39.4%	48.7%	-9.2 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Macva's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.3%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Macva win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Macva.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on IMT Novi Beograd by 9.6 percentage points (29.8% vs model 39.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Macva 32.9% · Draw 27.7% · IMT Novi Beograd 39.4%
- xG · Macva 1.54 — IMT Novi Beograd 1.49
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Macva 3.93 · Draw 3.26 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Macva 23.3% · Draw 28.1% · IMT Novi Beograd 48.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Macva 3.93 · Draw 3.26 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Macva 23.3% · Draw 28.1% · IMT Novi Beograd 48.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Macva win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 51/100

Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2825456

Closing Odds 3.93

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Macva win · Macva 1–0 IMT Novi Beograd

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Super Liga
Fixture: Macva vs IMT Novi Beograd
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 27.7% · Away 39.4%
xG (showing): Macva 1.54 — IMT Novi Beograd 1.49 (total xG ≈ 3.03)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.6% · Over 2.5 58.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	9	1	0	28
2	Vojvodina	10	7	1	2	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	5	2	2	17
4	Mladost Lucani	10	4	4	2	16
5	IMT Novi Beograd	10	4	3	3	15
6	Železničar Pančevo	9	4	2	3	14
7	Radnik Surdulica	10	3	5	2	14
8	Novi Pazar	10	3	4	3	13
9	Cukaricki	10	3	2	5	11
10	OFK Beograd	10	2	3	5	9
11	FK Partizan	9	2	2	5	8
12	Radnicki NIS	9	2	2	5	8
13	Macva	10	2	2	6	8
14	Zemun	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	24	3	+21	28
2	Vojvodina	10	21	10	+11	22
3	Radnicki 1923	9	17	9	+8	17
4	FK Partizan	9	17	19	-2	8
5	Železničar Pančevo	9	14	10	+4	14
6	Radnik Surdulica	10	14	15	-1	14
7	OFK Beograd	10	13	21	-8	9
8	IMT Novi Beograd	10	12	7	+5	15
9	Cukaricki	10	12	18	-6	11
10	Novi Pazar	10	10	11	-1	13
11	Mladost Lucani	10	10	12	-2	16
12	Radnicki NIS	9	6	11	-5	8
13	Macva	10	6	17	-11	8
14	Zemun	10	6	19	-13	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Vojvodina	10	7.0	1.1	+5.9	22
2	FK Crvena Zvezda	10	5.9	1.2	+4.7	28
3	Radnicki 1923	9	1.9	1.1	+0.8	17
4	FK Partizan	9	3.7	3.1	+0.6	8
5	Cukaricki	10	1.8	1.4	+0.4	11
6	Radnik Surdulica	10	0.8	0.5	+0.3	14
7	Radnicki NIS	9	1.1	0.9	+0.2	8
8	Železničar Pančevo	9	0.9	1.1	-0.2	14
9	IMT Novi Beograd	10	1.4	1.8	-0.4	15
10	Novi Pazar	10	1.1	1.9	-0.8	13
11	OFK Beograd	10	0.3	2.1	-1.8	9
12	Macva	10	0.5	4.7	-4.2	8
13	Zemun	10	1.9	7.4	-5.5	3
14	Mladost Lucani	10	—	—	—	16