Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Zemun vs Radnicki NIS

Prediction Audit: Zemun vs Radnicki NIS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zemun Zemun
Aug 02, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.65
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 57%
Radnicki NIS Radnicki NIS

The model missed the final outcome (Radnicki NIS win 0–1).

The model had projected Zemun at 42.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Zemun Radnicki NIS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Zemun considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Zemun +15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zemun 42.5% 27.1% +15.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.8% 28.3% -1.5 pp Aligned
Radnicki NIS 30.7% 44.6% -13.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Zemun's win probability at 42.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.1%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Radnicki NIS win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zemun.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zemun by 15.4 percentage points (27.1% vs model 42.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zemun 42.5% · Draw 26.8% · Radnicki NIS 30.7%
    • xG · Zemun 1.65 — Radnicki NIS 1.38
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zemun 3.38 · Draw 3.23 · Radnicki NIS 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Zemun 27.1% · Draw 28.3% · Radnicki NIS 44.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zemun 3.38 · Draw 3.23 · Radnicki NIS 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Zemun 27.1% · Draw 28.3% · Radnicki NIS 44.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Radnicki NIS win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1819586

Closing Odds 3.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Radnicki NIS win · Zemun 0–1 Radnicki NIS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Zemun vs Radnicki NIS
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.5% · Draw 26.8% · Away 30.7%
  • xG (showing): Zemun 1.65 — Radnicki NIS 1.38 (total xG ≈ 3.03)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.6% · Over 2.5 58.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.9% · No 38.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.9% · No 38.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16