Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Radnik Surdulica vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Prediction Audit: Radnik Surdulica vs FK Crvena Zvezda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica
Sep 10, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.07
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 54%
FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena Zvezda

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected FK Crvena Zvezda at 44.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Crvena Zvezda Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Crvena Zvezda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Crvena Zvezda -30.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radnik Surdulica 26.2% 9.7% +16.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.7% 15.7% +14.0 pp Model Edge
FK Crvena Zvezda 44.0% 74.6% -30.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FK Crvena Zvezda's win probability at 74.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.0%, a difference of 30.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FK Crvena Zvezda; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Crvena Zvezda by 30.6 percentage points (74.6% vs model 44.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 10, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radnik Surdulica 26.2% · Draw 29.7% · FK Crvena Zvezda 44.1%
    • xG · Radnik Surdulica 1.07 — FK Crvena Zvezda 1.16
  2. Sep 10, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radnik Surdulica 9.43 · Draw 5.79 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnik Surdulica 9.7% · Draw 15.7% · FK Crvena Zvezda 74.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Radnik Surdulica 9.43 · Draw 5.79 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnik Surdulica 9.7% · Draw 15.7% · FK Crvena Zvezda 74.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1819411

Closing Odds 1.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Radnik Surdulica 0–0 FK Crvena Zvezda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Crvena Zvezda; market prices FK Crvena Zvezda instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Radnik Surdulica 1.07 xG vs FK Crvena Zvezda 1.16 → FK Crvena Zvezda 44.0%
  • Market: FK Crvena Zvezda ~74.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Super Liga Matches Track Radnik Surdulica Next Match Prediction Track FK Crvena Zvezda Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Radnik Surdulica & FK Crvena Zvezda!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16