Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / FK Partizan vs IMT Novi Beograd

Prediction Audit: FK Partizan vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Partizan FK Partizan
Aug 02, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.55
2 1.05
xG Accuracy: 50%
IMT Novi Beograd IMT Novi Beograd

The model missed the final outcome (IMT Novi Beograd win 1–2).

The model had projected FK Partizan at 68.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Partizan IMT Novi Beograd ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, 1-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FK Partizan considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FK Partizan +15.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Partizan 68.8% 53.4% +15.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 18.6% 23.4% -4.8 pp Aligned
IMT Novi Beograd 12.6% 23.2% -10.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates FK Partizan's win probability at 68.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 53.4%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was IMT Novi Beograd win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FK Partizan.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FK Partizan; match finished IMT Novi Beograd
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Partizan by 15.4 percentage points (53.4% vs model 68.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Partizan 68.9% · Draw 18.6% · IMT Novi Beograd 12.6%
    • xG · FK Partizan 2.55 — IMT Novi Beograd 1.05
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Partizan 1.71 · Draw 3.91 · IMT Novi Beograd 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Partizan 53.4% · Draw 23.4% · IMT Novi Beograd 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Partizan 1.71 · Draw 3.91 · IMT Novi Beograd 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Partizan 53.4% · Draw 23.4% · IMT Novi Beograd 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result IMT Novi Beograd win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 43/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (89%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1819388

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result IMT Novi Beograd win · FK Partizan 1–2 IMT Novi Beograd
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: FK Partizan vs IMT Novi Beograd
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 68.9% · Draw 18.6% · Away 12.6%
  • xG (showing): FK Partizan 2.55 — IMT Novi Beograd 1.05 (total xG ≈ 3.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.3% · Over 2.5 69.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16