Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica

Prediction Audit: OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

OFK Beograd OFK Beograd
Jul 25, 2026 - 18:00
0 2.04
0 1.08
xG Accuracy: 42%
Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected OFK Beograd at 55.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 OFK Beograd Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates OFK Beograd considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: OFK Beograd +13.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
OFK Beograd 55.1% 41.2% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 24.6% 28.4% -3.8 pp Aligned
Radnik Surdulica 20.3% 30.3% -10.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates OFK Beograd's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 41.2%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on OFK Beograd.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on OFK Beograd by 13.8 percentage points (41.3% vs model 55.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · OFK Beograd 55.0% · Draw 24.6% · Radnik Surdulica 20.4%
    • xG · OFK Beograd 2.04 — Radnik Surdulica 1.08
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · OFK Beograd 2.22 · Draw 3.22 · Radnik Surdulica 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · OFK Beograd 41.2% · Draw 28.4% · Radnik Surdulica 30.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · OFK Beograd 2.22 · Draw 3.22 · Radnik Surdulica 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · OFK Beograd 41.2% · Draw 28.4% · Radnik Surdulica 30.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456827

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · OFK Beograd 0–0 Radnik Surdulica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serbian SuperLiga
  • Fixture: OFK Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): OFK Beograd 2.04 — Radnik Surdulica 1.08 (total xG ≈ 3.12)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Super Liga Matches Track OFK Beograd Next Match Prediction Track Radnik Surdulica Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for OFK Beograd & Radnik Surdulica!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16