Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lucani

Prediction Audit: Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lucani Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radnik Surdulica Radnik Surdulica
Jul 19, 2026 - 17:00
1 2.61
1 0.62
xG Accuracy: 58%
Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Radnik Surdulica at 74.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Radnik Surdulica Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 1-0, 2-1, 4-0 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Radnik Surdulica considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Radnik Surdulica +26.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radnik Surdulica 74.4% 48.0% +26.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 17.8% 28.8% -11.0 pp Market Higher
Mladost Lucani 7.8% 23.2% -15.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Radnik Surdulica's win probability at 74.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 48.0%, a difference of 26.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Radnik Surdulica by 26.4 percentage points (48.0% vs model 74.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radnik Surdulica 74.4% · Draw 17.8% · Mladost Lucani 7.8%
    • xG · Radnik Surdulica 2.61 — Mladost Lucani 0.62
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radnik Surdulica 1.91 · Draw 3.18 · Mladost Lucani 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnik Surdulica 48.0% · Draw 28.8% · Mladost Lucani 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Radnik Surdulica 1.91 · Draw 3.18 · Mladost Lucani 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnik Surdulica 48.0% · Draw 28.8% · Mladost Lucani 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 38/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (93%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 24/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1547486

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds 1.34
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Radnik Surdulica 1–1 Mladost Lucani
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 74.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 70–75% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serbian SuperLiga
  • Fixture: Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lučani
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Radnik Surdulica 2.61 — Mladost Lučani 0.62 (total xG ≈ 3.23)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16