Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Novi Pazar vs Radnicki 1923

Prediction Audit: Novi Pazar vs Radnicki 1923 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Novi Pazar Novi Pazar
Jul 18, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.17
0 1.12
xG Accuracy: 53%
Radnicki 1923 Radnicki 1923

AI correctly predicted the Novi Pazar win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Novi Pazar considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Novi Pazar +21.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Novi Pazar 55.0% 33.3% +21.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 24.2% 29.9% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Radnicki 1923 20.8% 36.8% -16.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Novi Pazar's win probability at 55.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.3%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Novi Pazar win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Novi Pazar attacking xG significantly stronger (2.17 vs 1.12)
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Novi Pazar more conservatively (33.3% vs model 55.0%, 21.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Novi Pazar win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Novi Pazar 55.0% · Draw 24.2% · Radnicki 1923 20.8%
    • xG · Novi Pazar 2.17 — Radnicki 1923 1.12
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Novi Pazar 2.75 · Draw 3.06 · Radnicki 1923 2.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Novi Pazar 33.3% · Draw 29.9% · Radnicki 1923 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Novi Pazar 2.75 · Draw 3.06 · Radnicki 1923 2.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Novi Pazar 33.3% · Draw 29.9% · Radnicki 1923 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Novi Pazar win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 46/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (61%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1643891

Closing Odds 2.75
AI Fair Odds 1.82
CLV Pending
Final Result Novi Pazar win · Novi Pazar 1–0 Radnicki 1923
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 54.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serbian SuperLiga
  • Fixture: Novi Pazar vs Radnicki 1923
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Novi Pazar 2.17 — Radnicki 1923 1.12 (total xG ≈ 3.29)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16