AI correctly predicted the Kazma win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Kazma Kazma ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazma | 37.5% | 38.1% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 30.7% | 35.5% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Al Salmiyah | 31.8% | 26.4% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Al Salmiyah's win probability at 31.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.4%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kazma win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Al Salmiyah.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.53) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kazma more conservatively (32.1% vs model 37.5%, 5.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kazma win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kazma 37.5% · Draw 30.7% · Al Salmiyah 31.9%
- xG · Kazma 1.30 — Al Salmiyah 1.23
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kazma 2.32 · Draw 2.49 · Al Salmiyah 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · Kazma 38.1% · Draw 35.5% · Al Salmiyah 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kazma 2.32 · Draw 2.49 · Al Salmiyah 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · Kazma 38.1% · Draw 35.5% · Al Salmiyah 26.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kazma win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 44 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Kazma | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Al Arabi | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Al Salmiyah | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | Al Fahaheel | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Al Tadhamon | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Shabab | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Al Nasar | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 10 | Al Jahra | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 18 | 46 | 10 | +36 | 44 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 18 | 32 | 14 | +18 | 32 |
| 3 | Al Arabi | 18 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 30 |
| 4 | Kazma | 18 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 30 |
| 5 | Al Salmiyah | 18 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 | Al Fahaheel | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 21 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 18 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
| 8 | Al Tadhamon | 18 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
| 9 | Al Shabab | 18 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 18 |
| 10 | Al Jahra | 18 | 11 | 39 | -28 | 8 |
