AI correctly predicted the Al Arabi win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Arabi Al Arabi ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Arabi | 55.5% | 77.4% | -21.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.6% | 14.7% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Al Fahaheel | 18.8% | 7.9% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Al Arabi's win probability at 77.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 55.5%, a difference of 21.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al Arabi win 3–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.53) — 3 goals materialised
- Al Arabi attacking xG significantly stronger (1.47 vs 1.06)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Arabi higher (77.4% vs model 55.5%, 21.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Arabi win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 19:18 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Arabi 55.5% · Draw 25.6% · Al Fahaheel 18.8%
- xG · Al Arabi 1.47 — Al Fahaheel 1.06
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Arabi 1.18 · Draw 6.22 · Al Fahaheel 11.60
- Implied 1X2 · Al Arabi 77.4% · Draw 14.7% · Al Fahaheel 7.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Arabi 1.18 · Draw 6.22 · Al Fahaheel 11.60
- Implied 1X2 · Al Arabi 77.4% · Draw 14.7% · Al Fahaheel 7.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 29, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Arabi win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 44 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Kazma | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Al Arabi | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Al Salmiyah | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | Al Fahaheel | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Al Tadhamon | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 8 | Al Shabab | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Al Nasar | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| 10 | Al Jahra | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 18 | 46 | 10 | +36 | 44 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 18 | 32 | 14 | +18 | 32 |
| 3 | Al Arabi | 18 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 30 |
| 4 | Kazma | 18 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 30 |
| 5 | Al Salmiyah | 18 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 | Al Fahaheel | 18 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 21 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 18 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
| 8 | Al Tadhamon | 18 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
| 9 | Al Shabab | 18 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 18 |
| 10 | Al Jahra | 18 | 11 | 39 | -28 | 8 |
