The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Belasica at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Belasica Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belasica | 38.0% | 54.5% | -16.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Detonit Plachkovica | 32.4% | 17.8% | +14.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Belasica's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 16.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Belasica than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Belasica; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Belasica by 16.5 percentage points (54.5% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Belasica 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Detonit Plachkovica 32.4%
- xG · Belasica 1.36 — Detonit Plachkovica 1.24
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Belasica 1.60 · Draw 3.36 · Detonit Plachkovica 4.92
- Implied 1X2 · Belasica 55.5% · Draw 26.4% · Detonit Plachkovica 18.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Belasica 1.65 · Draw 3.25 · Detonit Plachkovica 5.04
- Implied 1X2 · Belasica 54.5% · Draw 27.7% · Detonit Plachkovica 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Pelister | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Akademija Pandev | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | FK Rabotnicki | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Belasica | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Kamjani | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Novaci | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Detonit Plachkovica | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Teteks | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Akademija Pandev | 5 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 13 |
| 3 | Pelister | 6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 | Belasica | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 5 | FK Rabotnicki | 5 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 12 |
| 6 | Kamjani | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Detonit Plachkovica | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Teteks | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Novaci | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Gorno Lisiče | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Makedonija GjP | 6 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 6 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 6 | 1 | 22 | -21 | 0 |
