Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow

Prediction Audit: GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

GKS Katowice GKS Katowice
Sep 19, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.45
2 1.97
xG Accuracy: 65%
Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow

The model missed the final outcome (GKS Katowice win 3–2).

The model had projected Cracovia Krakow at 48.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cracovia Krakow GKS Katowice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Cracovia Krakow considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Cracovia Krakow +17.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
GKS Katowice 27.2% 42.7% -15.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.3% 26.3% -2.0 pp Aligned
Cracovia Krakow 48.5% 31.0% +17.5 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Cracovia Krakow's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.0%, a difference of 17.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was GKS Katowice win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cracovia Krakow.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.42) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Cracovia Krakow; match finished GKS Katowice
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cracovia Krakow by 17.5 percentage points (31.0% vs model 48.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · GKS Katowice 27.2% · Draw 24.3% · Cracovia Krakow 48.5%
    • xG · GKS Katowice 1.45 — Cracovia Krakow 1.97
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · GKS Katowice 2.25 · Draw 3.66 · Cracovia Krakow 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · GKS Katowice 42.7% · Draw 26.3% · Cracovia Krakow 31.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · GKS Katowice 2.25 · Draw 3.66 · Cracovia Krakow 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · GKS Katowice 42.7% · Draw 26.3% · Cracovia Krakow 31.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result GKS Katowice win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8700757

Closing Odds 3.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result GKS Katowice win · GKS Katowice 3–2 Cracovia Krakow
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Cracovia Krakow
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.2% · Draw 24.3% · Away 48.5%
  • xG (showing): GKS Katowice 1.45 — Cracovia Krakow 1.97 (total xG ≈ 3.42)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.4% · Implied: 55.9% · Probability edge: +10.5 pts · Est. EV: +13.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.1% · No 32.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3