Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice

Prediction Audit: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
Sep 14, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.24
2 1.55
xG Accuracy: 63%
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice

AI correctly predicted the Piast Gliwice win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Radomiak Radom higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Radomiak Radom -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radomiak Radom 29.0% 39.7% -10.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.1% 26.9% +1.2 pp Aligned
Piast Gliwice 43.0% 33.4% +9.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Radomiak Radom's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Piast Gliwice win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Radomiak Radom than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Piast Gliwice higher (53.8% vs model 43.0%, 10.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Piast Gliwice win 0–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radomiak Radom 29.0% · Draw 28.1% · Piast Gliwice 42.9%
    • xG · Radomiak Radom 1.24 — Piast Gliwice 1.55
  2. Sep 14, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radomiak Radom 2.42 · Draw 3.58 · Piast Gliwice 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Radomiak Radom 39.7% · Draw 26.9% · Piast Gliwice 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Radomiak Radom 2.42 · Draw 3.58 · Piast Gliwice 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Radomiak Radom 39.7% · Draw 26.9% · Piast Gliwice 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Piast Gliwice win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7572668

Closing Odds 2.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Piast Gliwice win · Radomiak Radom 0–2 Piast Gliwice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.0% · Draw 28.1% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Radomiak Radom 1.24 — Piast Gliwice 1.55 (total xG ≈ 2.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Piast Gliwice
  • Model: 42.9% · Implied: 33.4% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.5% · No 42.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ekstraklasa Matches Track Radomiak Radom Next Match Prediction Track Piast Gliwice Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Radomiak Radom & Piast Gliwice!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3