Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw

Prediction Audit: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
Sep 06, 2026 - 18:15
2 1.78
1 1.43
xG Accuracy: 84%
Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw

AI correctly predicted the Jagiellonia win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jagiellonia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jagiellonia -12.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jagiellonia 44.6% 57.2% -12.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.0% +3.6 pp Aligned
Slask Wroclaw 29.7% 20.8% +9.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Jagiellonia's win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.6%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Jagiellonia win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Jagiellonia than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.21) — 3 goals materialised
  • Jagiellonia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.78 vs 1.43)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Jagiellonia higher (57.2% vs model 44.6%, 12.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Jagiellonia win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jagiellonia 44.6% · Draw 25.7% · Slask Wroclaw 29.7%
    • xG · Jagiellonia 1.78 — Slask Wroclaw 1.43
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jagiellonia 1.68 · Draw 4.36 · Slask Wroclaw 4.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Jagiellonia 57.2% · Draw 22.0% · Slask Wroclaw 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jagiellonia 1.68 · Draw 4.36 · Slask Wroclaw 4.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Jagiellonia 57.2% · Draw 22.0% · Slask Wroclaw 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jagiellonia win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6371915

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jagiellonia win · Jagiellonia 2–1 Slask Wroclaw
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.6% · Draw 25.7% · Away 29.7%
  • xG (showing): Jagiellonia 1.78 — Slask Wroclaw 1.43 (total xG ≈ 3.21)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 64.6% · Implied: 59.0% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.6% · No 35.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3