Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce

Prediction Audit: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Widzew Łódź Widzew Łódź
Aug 15, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.21
2 0.86
xG Accuracy: 69%
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce

The model missed the final outcome (Korona Kielce win 1–2).

The model had projected Widzew Łódź at 42.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Widzew Łódź Korona Kielce ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Widzew Łódź higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Widzew Łódź -5.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Widzew Łódź 42.5% 48.4% -5.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 33.0% 28.3% +4.7 pp Aligned
Korona Kielce 24.5% 23.4% +1.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Widzew Łódź's win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.5%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Korona Kielce win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Widzew Łódź. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Widzew Łódź by 5.9 percentage points (48.4% vs model 42.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Widzew Łódź 42.5% · Draw 33.0% · Korona Kielce 24.5%
    • xG · Widzew Łódź 1.21 — Korona Kielce 0.86
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Widzew Łódź 1.99 · Draw 3.40 · Korona Kielce 4.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Widzew Łódź 48.4% · Draw 28.3% · Korona Kielce 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Widzew Łódź 1.99 · Draw 3.40 · Korona Kielce 4.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Widzew Łódź 48.4% · Draw 28.3% · Korona Kielce 23.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Korona Kielce win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3366065

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Korona Kielce win · Widzew Łódź 1–2 Korona Kielce
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.5% · Draw 33.0% · Away 24.5%
  • xG (showing): Widzew Łódź 1.21 — Korona Kielce 0.86 (total xG ≈ 2.07)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.8% · Over 2.5 34.2%); BTTS No (Yes 42.2% · No 57.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.2% · No 57.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3