Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin

Prediction Audit: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
Sep 15, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.04
3 1.74
xG Accuracy: 54%
Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin

AI correctly predicted the Zaglebie Lubin win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Raków Częstochowa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Raków Częstochowa -27.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Raków Częstochowa 21.1% 49.0% -27.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.6% 26.5% +0.1 pp Aligned
Zaglebie Lubin 52.3% 24.5% +27.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Raków Częstochowa's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 21.1%, a difference of 27.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Zaglebie Lubin win 2–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.78) — 5 goals materialised
  • Zaglebie Lubin attacking xG significantly stronger (1.74 vs 1.04)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zaglebie Lubin higher (80.2% vs model 52.3%, 27.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zaglebie Lubin win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa 21.1% · Draw 26.6% · Zaglebie Lubin 52.3%
    • xG · Raków Częstochowa 1.04 — Zaglebie Lubin 1.74
  2. Sep 15, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Raków Częstochowa 1.96 · Draw 3.63 · Zaglebie Lubin 3.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa 49.0% · Draw 26.5% · Zaglebie Lubin 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 15, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Raków Częstochowa 1.96 · Draw 3.63 · Zaglebie Lubin 3.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Raków Częstochowa 49.0% · Draw 26.5% · Zaglebie Lubin 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zaglebie Lubin win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2962968

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zaglebie Lubin win · Raków Częstochowa 2–3 Zaglebie Lubin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 21.1% · Draw 26.6% · Away 52.3%
  • xG (showing): Raków Częstochowa 1.04 — Zaglebie Lubin 1.74 (total xG ≈ 2.78)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Zaglebie Lubin
  • Model: 52.3% · Implied: 24.5% · Probability edge: +27.8 pts · Est. EV: +15.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.8% · No 45.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3