Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

Prediction Audit: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
Jul 31, 2026 - 18:30
1 2.21
2 1.76
xG Accuracy: 67%
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia

The model missed the final outcome (Jagiellonia win 1–2).

The model had projected Motor Lublin at 42.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Motor Lublin Jagiellonia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Motor Lublin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Motor Lublin +11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Motor Lublin 42.8% 31.8% +11.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 23.8% 26.5% -2.7 pp Aligned
Jagiellonia 33.4% 41.7% -8.3 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Motor Lublin's win probability at 42.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.8%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Jagiellonia win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Motor Lublin.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.97) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Motor Lublin; match finished Jagiellonia

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Motor Lublin by 11.0 percentage points (31.8% vs model 42.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Motor Lublin 42.7% · Draw 23.8% · Jagiellonia 33.5%
    • xG · Motor Lublin 2.21 — Jagiellonia 1.76
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Motor Lublin 3.03 · Draw 3.63 · Jagiellonia 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Motor Lublin 31.8% · Draw 26.5% · Jagiellonia 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Motor Lublin 3.03 · Draw 3.63 · Jagiellonia 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Motor Lublin 31.8% · Draw 26.5% · Jagiellonia 41.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jagiellonia win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1677310

Closing Odds 3.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jagiellonia win · Motor Lublin 1–2 Jagiellonia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.7% · Draw 23.8% · Away 33.5%
  • xG (showing): Motor Lublin 2.21 — Jagiellonia 1.76 (total xG ≈ 3.97)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 24.2% · Over 2.5 75.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 74.7% · No 25.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 74.7% · No 25.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3