Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków

Prediction Audit: Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
Jul 24, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.72
1 1.89
xG Accuracy: 72%
Wieczysta Kraków Wieczysta Kraków

The model missed the final outcome (Radomiak Radom win 2–1).

The model had projected Wieczysta Kraków at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wieczysta Kraków Radomiak Radom ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Wieczysta Kraków considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Wieczysta Kraków +6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radomiak Radom 34.5% 37.3% -2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 24.1% 27.5% -3.4 pp Aligned
Wieczysta Kraków 41.4% 35.1% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Wieczysta Kraków's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.1%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Radomiak Radom win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Wieczysta Kraków.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.61) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Wieczysta Kraków; match finished Radomiak Radom

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wieczysta Kraków by 6.2 percentage points (35.2% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radomiak Radom 34.5% · Draw 24.1% · Wieczysta Kraków 41.4%
    • xG · Radomiak Radom 1.72 — Wieczysta Kraków 1.89
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radomiak Radom 2.58 · Draw 3.50 · Wieczysta Kraków 2.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Radomiak Radom 37.3% · Draw 27.5% · Wieczysta Kraków 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Radomiak Radom 2.58 · Draw 3.50 · Wieczysta Kraków 2.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Radomiak Radom 37.3% · Draw 27.5% · Wieczysta Kraków 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Radomiak Radom win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453000

Closing Odds 2.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Radomiak Radom win · Radomiak Radom 2–1 Wieczysta Kraków
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wieczysta Kraków
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Radomiak Radom 1.72 — Wieczysta Kraków 1.89 (total xG ≈ 3.61)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3