Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa

Prediction Audit: Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
Jul 24, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.88
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 55%
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa

The model missed the final outcome (Legia Warszawa win 0–1).

The model had projected Pogon Szczecin at 44.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pogoń Szczecin Legia Warszawa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Pogon Szczecin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Pogon Szczecin +10.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogon Szczecin 44.4% 33.8% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.5% 28.6% -2.1 pp Aligned
Legia Warszawa 29.1% 37.6% -8.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Pogon Szczecin's win probability at 44.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Legia Warszawa win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Pogon Szczecin.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pogon Szczecin by 10.6 percentage points (33.8% vs model 44.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogon Szczecin 44.4% · Draw 26.5% · Legia Warszawa 29.1%
    • xG · Pogon Szczecin 1.88 — Legia Warszawa 1.32
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogon Szczecin 2.85 · Draw 3.37 · Legia Warszawa 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogon Szczecin 33.8% · Draw 28.6% · Legia Warszawa 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogon Szczecin 2.85 · Draw 3.37 · Legia Warszawa 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogon Szczecin 33.8% · Draw 28.6% · Legia Warszawa 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Legia Warszawa win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1617186

Closing Odds 2.85
AI Fair Odds 1.95
CLV Pending
Final Result Legia Warszawa win · Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Legia Warszawa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 51.3%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Pogoń Szczecin vs Legia Warszawa
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.4% · Draw 26.5% · Away 29.1%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Szczecin 1.88 — Legia Warszawa 1.32 (total xG ≈ 3.2)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Pogoń Szczecin
  • Model: 44.4% · Implied: 33.8% · Probability edge: +10.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gornik Zabrze 9 7 1 1 22
2 Legia Warszawa 9 5 4 0 19
3 Lech Poznan 8 6 1 1 19
4 Wisla Krakow 9 5 2 2 17
5 Pogon Szczecin 8 4 3 1 15
6 Korona Kielce 9 4 3 2 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 4 3 2 15
8 Piast Gliwice 9 4 1 4 13
9 GKS Katowice 8 4 0 4 12
10 Jagiellonia 8 4 0 4 12
11 Wisla Plock 8 3 2 3 11
12 Widzew Łódź 9 1 6 2 9
13 Cracovia Krakow 9 2 2 5 8
14 Radomiak Radom 9 2 2 5 8
15 Slask Wroclaw 9 1 3 5 6
16 Motor Lublin 9 1 3 5 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków 8 1 2 5 5
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa 9 19 8 +11 19
2 Lech Poznan 8 17 7 +10 19
3 Wisla Krakow 9 17 12 +5 17
4 Gornik Zabrze 9 16 8 +8 22
5 GKS Katowice 8 16 13 +3 12
6 Piast Gliwice 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Widzew Łódź 9 13 13 0 9
8 Pogon Szczecin 8 12 6 +6 15
9 Korona Kielce 9 12 10 +2 15
10 Jagiellonia 8 12 13 -1 12
11 Raków Częstochowa 9 12 21 -9 3
12 Zaglebie Lubin 9 11 10 +1 15
13 Slask Wroclaw 9 11 15 -4 6
14 Wieczysta Kraków 8 11 17 -6 5
15 Wisla Plock 8 9 12 -3 11
16 Cracovia Krakow 9 9 14 -5 8
17 Motor Lublin 9 9 15 -6 6
18 Radomiak Radom 9 7 20 -13 8
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 8 10.4 4.1 +6.3 19
2 Wisla Krakow 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 17
3 Legia Warszawa 9 9.9 6.0 +3.9 19
4 Cracovia Krakow 9 10.4 7.1 +3.3 8
5 Gornik Zabrze 9 10.0 7.7 +2.3 22
6 Jagiellonia 8 8.9 6.9 +2.0 12
7 Zaglebie Lubin 9 8.4 8.2 +0.2 15
8 Widzew Łódź 9 9.8 9.7 +0.1 9
9 Slask Wroclaw 9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 6
10 Wieczysta Kraków 8 9.1 9.6 -0.5 5
11 Motor Lublin 9 8.7 9.2 -0.5 6
12 Pogon Szczecin 8 8.1 8.9 -0.8 15
13 Wisla Plock 8 9.6 10.8 -1.2 11
14 GKS Katowice 8 8.8 10.6 -1.8 12
15 Korona Kielce 9 5.4 8.7 -3.3 15
16 Piast Gliwice 9 7.3 10.8 -3.5 13
17 Radomiak Radom 9 7.4 11.2 -3.8 8
18 Raków Częstochowa 9 9.9 16.5 -6.6 3