Predictions / Football / Mali. Première Division / Afrique Football Élite vs Derby Academie

Prediction Audit: Afrique Football Élite vs Derby Academie Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Afrique Football Élite Afrique Football Élite
Jun 14, 2026 - 16:15
2 0.84
1 0.89
xG Accuracy: 70%
⚽
Derby Academie

The model missed the final outcome (Afrique Football Élite win 2–1).

The model had projected Draw at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Afrique Football Élite ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Afrique Football Élite win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 14, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Afrique Football Élite 0.84 — Derby Academie 0.89
  2. Jun 14, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Afrique Football Élite win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 04:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3378488

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Afrique Football Élite win · Afrique Football Élite 2–1 Derby Academie
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Première Division
  • Fixture: Afrique Football Élite vs Derby Academie
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.0% · Draw 37.2% · Away 32.8%
  • xG (showing): Afrique Football Élite 0.84 — Derby Academie 0.89 (total xG ≈ 1.73)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 74.9% · Over 2.5 25.1%); BTTS No (Yes 35.2% · No 64.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 35.2% · No 64.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (17.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Première Division Première Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Djoliba 26 18 5 3 59
2 Stade Malien Bamako 26 14 8 4 50
3 Réal Bamako 26 14 7 5 49
4 Diarra 26 13 5 8 44
5 Binga 26 12 7 7 43
6 USFAS Bamako 26 12 6 8 42
7 ASKO 26 9 6 11 33
8 US Bougouba 26 8 7 11 31
9 Derby Academie 26 5 14 7 29
10 Bakaridjan 26 6 9 11 27
11 Afrique Football Élite 26 7 6 13 27
12 Onze Créateurs 26 6 8 12 26
13 Mali Coura 26 4 8 14 20
14 Bougouni 26 4 4 18 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Djoliba 26 41 12 +29 59
2 USFAS Bamako 26 37 27 +10 42
3 Réal Bamako 26 32 14 +18 49
4 Diarra 26 32 24 +8 44
5 Stade Malien Bamako 26 28 15 +13 50
6 Binga 26 28 15 +13 43
7 ASKO 26 28 31 -3 33
8 Afrique Football Élite 26 23 38 -15 27
9 US Bougouba 26 21 34 -13 31
10 Bakaridjan 26 20 27 -7 27
11 Mali Coura 26 20 31 -11 20
12 Derby Academie 26 19 22 -3 29
13 Onze Créateurs 26 16 24 -8 26
14 Bougouni 26 12 43 -31 16