Predictions / Football / World. ASEAN Championship U19 / Cambodia U19 vs Indonesia U19

Prediction Audit: Cambodia U19 vs Indonesia U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cambodia U19 Cambodia U19
Jun 13, 2026 - 09:00
0 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Indonesia U19 Indonesia U19

AI correctly predicted the Indonesia U19 win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Indonesia U19 Indonesia U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Indonesia U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Indonesia U19 -29.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cambodia U19 27.4% 11.0% +16.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 27.9% 15.3% +12.6 pp Model Edge
Indonesia U19 44.7% 73.8% -29.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Indonesia U19's win probability at 73.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.7%, a difference of 29.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Indonesia U19 win 0–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Indonesia U19 higher (73.8% vs model 44.7%, 29.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Indonesia U19 win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 18:51 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cambodia U19 27.5% · Draw 27.9% · Indonesia U19 44.7%
    • xG · Cambodia U19 1.22 — Indonesia U19 1.38
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cambodia U19 8.07 · Draw 5.79 · Indonesia U19 1.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Cambodia U19 11.0% · Draw 15.3% · Indonesia U19 73.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 13, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cambodia U19 8.07 · Draw 5.79 · Indonesia U19 1.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Cambodia U19 11.0% · Draw 15.3% · Indonesia U19 73.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 13, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Indonesia U19 win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1626131

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Indonesia U19 win · Cambodia U19 0–1 Indonesia U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: ASEAN Championship U19
  • Fixture: Cambodia U19 vs Indonesia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Cambodia U19 1.22 — Indonesia U19 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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ASEAN Championship U19 ASEAN Championship U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Indonesia U19 3 3 0 0 9
2 Vietnam U19 3 2 0 1 6
3 Myanmar U19 3 1 0 2 3
4 Timor-Leste U19 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vietnam U19 3 9 2 +7 6
2 Indonesia U19 3 8 1 +7 9
3 Myanmar U19 3 3 9 -6 3
4 Timor-Leste U19 3 1 9 -8 0