Predictions / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Auxerre vs Nice

Prediction Audit: Auxerre vs Nice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Auxerre Auxerre
Sep 12, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.31
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Nice Nice

The model missed the final outcome (Auxerre win 1–0).

The model had projected Nice at 37.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nice Auxerre ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Nice -1.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Auxerre 33.9% 32.9% +1.0 pp Aligned
Draw 28.9% 28.0% +0.9 pp Aligned
Nice 37.2% 39.1% -1.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Auxerre win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Nice; match finished Auxerre

Market lesson

The full-time result was Auxerre win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Auxerre 33.9% · Draw 28.9% · Nice 37.2%
    • xG · Auxerre 1.31 — Nice 1.34
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Auxerre 2.96 · Draw 3.47 · Nice 2.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Auxerre 32.9% · Draw 28.0% · Nice 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Auxerre 2.96 · Draw 3.47 · Nice 2.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Auxerre 32.9% · Draw 28.0% · Nice 39.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Auxerre win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 90/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7468630

Closing Odds 2.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Auxerre win · Auxerre 1–0 Nice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Auxerre vs Nice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 37.2%
  • xG (showing): Auxerre 1.31 — Nice 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.65)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.6% · Over 2.5 49.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.5% · No 44.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.5% · No 44.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lens 5 7.3 3.5 +3.8 4
2 Stade Brestois 29 5 4.4 1.8 +2.6 5
3 Paris FC 5 3.5 0.9 +2.6 11
4 Marseille 5 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
5 Angers 5 3.6 2.5 +1.1 7
6 Monaco 5 2.9 1.8 +1.1 13
7 Paris Saint Germain 5 3.2 2.2 +1.0 8
8 Toulouse 5 3.8 2.9 +0.9 5
9 Estac Troyes 5 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
10 Lorient 5 2.0 2.5 -0.5 5
11 Le Mans 5 3.7 4.3 -0.6 6
12 Lille 5 2.3 3.3 -1.0 10
13 Rennes 5 3.7 4.9 -1.2 10
14 Lyon 5 1.9 3.3 -1.4 11
15 Le Havre 5 1.3 3.1 -1.8 2
16 Nice 5 1.5 3.6 -2.1 5
17 Strasbourg 5 4.8 7.7 -2.9 7
18 Auxerre 5 3.1 6.1 -3.0 6