Predictions / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29

Prediction Audit: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Le Havre Le Havre
Sep 05, 2026 - 18:45
1 0.95
2 1.49
xG Accuracy: 86%
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29

AI correctly predicted the Stade Brestois 29 win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Le Havre higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Le Havre -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Le Havre 27.7% 34.7% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.1% +0.5 pp Aligned
Stade Brestois 29 42.7% 36.1% +6.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Le Havre's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.7%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Stade Brestois 29 win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Le Havre. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Stade Brestois 29 attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 0.95)
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stade Brestois 29 higher (49.7% vs model 42.7%, 7.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stade Brestois 29 win 1–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 19:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Le Havre 27.7% · Draw 29.6% · Stade Brestois 29 42.7%
    • xG · Le Havre 0.95 — Stade Brestois 29 1.49
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Le Havre 2.80 · Draw 3.34 · Stade Brestois 29 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Le Havre 34.7% · Draw 29.1% · Stade Brestois 29 36.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Le Havre 2.80 · Draw 3.34 · Stade Brestois 29 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Le Havre 34.7% · Draw 29.1% · Stade Brestois 29 36.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stade Brestois 29 win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6167971

Closing Odds 2.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stade Brestois 29 win · Le Havre 1–2 Stade Brestois 29
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.7% · Draw 29.6% · Away 42.7%
  • xG (showing): Le Havre 0.95 — Stade Brestois 29 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.44)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 55.9% · Over 2.5 44.1%); BTTS No (Yes 49.1% · No 50.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.1% · No 50.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lens 5 7.3 3.5 +3.8 4
2 Stade Brestois 29 5 4.4 1.8 +2.6 5
3 Paris FC 5 3.5 0.9 +2.6 11
4 Marseille 5 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
5 Angers 5 3.6 2.5 +1.1 7
6 Monaco 5 2.9 1.8 +1.1 13
7 Paris Saint Germain 5 3.2 2.2 +1.0 8
8 Toulouse 5 3.8 2.9 +0.9 5
9 Estac Troyes 5 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
10 Lorient 5 2.0 2.5 -0.5 5
11 Le Mans 5 3.7 4.3 -0.6 6
12 Lille 5 2.3 3.3 -1.0 10
13 Rennes 5 3.7 4.9 -1.2 10
14 Lyon 5 1.9 3.3 -1.4 11
15 Le Havre 5 1.3 3.1 -1.8 2
16 Nice 5 1.5 3.6 -2.1 5
17 Strasbourg 5 4.8 7.7 -2.9 7
18 Auxerre 5 3.1 6.1 -3.0 6