Prediction Audit: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Estac Troyes

Aug 22, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.52

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 45%

Paris FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Estac Troyes at 36.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Estac Troyes Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Estac Troyes	36.5%	28.6%	+7.9 pp	Model Higher
Draw	27.7%	27.6%	+0.1 pp	Aligned
Paris FC	35.8%	43.8%	-8.0 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Paris FC's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.8%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Paris FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Estac Troyes by 8.0 percentage points (44.5% vs model 36.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 20:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Estac Troyes 36.5% · Draw 27.7% · Paris FC 35.8%
- xG · Estac Troyes 1.52 — Paris FC 1.36
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Estac Troyes 3.40 · Draw 3.53 · Paris FC 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · Estac Troyes 28.6% · Draw 27.6% · Paris FC 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Estac Troyes 3.40 · Draw 3.53 · Paris FC 2.22
- Implied 1X2 · Estac Troyes 28.6% · Draw 27.6% · Paris FC 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4241877

Closing Odds 2.22

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Estac Troyes 0–0 Paris FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Ligue 1
Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away 35.8%
xG (showing): Estac Troyes 1.52 — Paris FC 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.88)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.1% · Over 2.5 54.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.6% · No 40.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 59.6% · No 40.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ligue 1 Matches Track Estac Troyes Next Match Prediction Track Paris FC Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Estac Troyes & Paris FC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Ligue 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monaco	4	3	1	0	10
2	Rennes	4	3	1	0	10
3	Lyon	4	2	2	0	8
4	Paris FC	4	2	2	0	8
5	Lille	3	2	1	0	7
6	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	7
7	Stade Brestois 29	3	1	2	0	5
8	Lorient	4	1	2	1	5
9	Angers	4	1	1	2	4
10	Estac Troyes	3	1	1	1	4
11	Lens	3	1	0	2	3
12	Marseille	4	1	0	3	3
13	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	3
14	Paris Saint Germain	3	0	2	1	2
15	Le Mans	3	0	2	1	2
16	Le Havre	4	0	2	2	2
17	Toulouse	4	0	2	2	2
18	Nice	4	0	2	2	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Strasbourg	4	9	8	+1	7
2	Rennes	4	8	5	+3	10
3	Monaco	4	6	2	+4	10
4	Lyon	4	6	2	+4	8
5	Paris FC	4	6	2	+4	8
6	Stade Brestois 29	3	6	5	+1	5
7	Lens	3	6	5	+1	3
8	Marseille	4	6	6	0	3
9	Lille	3	5	2	+3	7
10	Paris Saint Germain	3	5	6	-1	2
11	Le Mans	3	5	6	-1	2
12	Auxerre	4	5	11	-6	3
13	Lorient	4	4	4	0	5
14	Angers	4	4	5	-1	4
15	Estac Troyes	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Toulouse	4	4	7	-3	2
17	Le Havre	4	2	4	-2	2
18	Nice	4	1	5	-4	2

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Lens	3	7.3	3.5	+3.8	3
2	Stade Brestois 29	3	4.4	1.8	+2.6	5
3	Paris FC	4	3.5	0.9	+2.6	8
4	Marseille	4	3.1	1.7	+1.4	3
5	Angers	4	3.6	2.5	+1.1	4
6	Monaco	4	2.9	1.8	+1.1	10
7	Paris Saint Germain	3	3.2	2.2	+1.0	2
8	Toulouse	4	3.8	2.9	+0.9	2
9	Estac Troyes	3	4.9	4.8	+0.1	4
10	Lorient	4	2.0	2.5	-0.5	5
11	Le Mans	3	3.7	4.3	-0.6	2
12	Lille	3	2.3	3.3	-1.0	7
13	Rennes	4	3.7	4.9	-1.2	10
14	Lyon	4	1.9	3.3	-1.4	8
15	Le Havre	4	1.3	3.1	-1.8	2
16	Nice	4	1.5	3.6	-2.1	2
17	Strasbourg	4	4.8	7.7	-2.9	7
18	Auxerre	4	3.1	6.1	-3.0	3