Predictions / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29

Prediction Audit: Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Le Mans Le Mans
Aug 22, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.45
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 69%
Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Le Mans at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Le Mans Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Le Mans +3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Le Mans 40.4% 37.2% +3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 28.9% 29.5% -0.6 pp Aligned
Stade Brestois 29 30.7% 33.3% -2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.64) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Le Mans; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Le Mans 40.3% · Draw 28.9% · Stade Brestois 29 30.8%
    • xG · Le Mans 1.45 — Stade Brestois 29 1.19
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Le Mans 2.61 · Draw 3.36 · Stade Brestois 29 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Le Mans 37.3% · Draw 28.9% · Stade Brestois 29 33.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Le Mans 2.61 · Draw 3.30 · Stade Brestois 29 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Le Mans 37.2% · Draw 29.5% · Stade Brestois 29 33.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4241827

Closing Odds 2.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 30.8%
  • xG (showing): Le Mans 1.45 — Stade Brestois 29 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.64)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.8% · Over 2.5 49.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lens 5 7.3 3.5 +3.8 4
2 Stade Brestois 29 5 4.4 1.8 +2.6 5
3 Paris FC 5 3.5 0.9 +2.6 11
4 Marseille 5 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
5 Angers 5 3.6 2.5 +1.1 7
6 Monaco 5 2.9 1.8 +1.1 13
7 Paris Saint Germain 5 3.2 2.2 +1.0 8
8 Toulouse 5 3.8 2.9 +0.9 5
9 Estac Troyes 5 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
10 Lorient 5 2.0 2.5 -0.5 5
11 Le Mans 5 3.7 4.3 -0.6 6
12 Lille 5 2.3 3.3 -1.0 10
13 Rennes 5 3.7 4.9 -1.2 10
14 Lyon 5 1.9 3.3 -1.4 11
15 Le Havre 5 1.3 3.1 -1.8 2
16 Nice 5 1.5 3.6 -2.1 5
17 Strasbourg 5 4.8 7.7 -2.9 7
18 Auxerre 5 3.1 6.1 -3.0 6