Predictions / Football / France. Ligue 2 / Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93

Prediction Audit: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guingamp Guingamp
Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
RED Star FC 93 RED Star FC 93

AI correctly predicted the RED Star FC 93 win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 RED Star FC 93 RED Star FC 93 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Guingamp higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guingamp -5.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guingamp 33.8% 39.6% -5.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.1% +2.5 pp Aligned
RED Star FC 93 36.6% 33.2% +3.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Guingamp's win probability at 39.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (RED Star FC 93 win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Guingamp. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced RED Star FC 93 higher (42.5% vs model 36.6%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (RED Star FC 93 win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guingamp 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · RED Star FC 93 36.6%
    • xG · Guingamp 1.27 — RED Star FC 93 1.33
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guingamp 2.43 · Draw 3.55 · RED Star FC 93 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Guingamp 39.6% · Draw 27.1% · RED Star FC 93 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Guingamp 2.43 · Draw 3.55 · RED Star FC 93 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Guingamp 39.6% · Draw 27.1% · RED Star FC 93 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result RED Star FC 93 win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8663848

Closing Odds 2.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result RED Star FC 93 win · Guingamp 1–3 RED Star FC 93
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 2
  • Fixture: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Guingamp 1.27 — RED Star FC 93 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 2 Ligue 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Saint Etienne 7 5 1 1 16
2 RED Star FC 93 7 4 2 1 14
3 Reims 7 3 4 0 13
4 Montpellier 7 3 3 1 12
5 Metz 7 2 4 1 10
6 Nancy 7 3 1 3 10
7 Annecy 7 3 1 3 10
8 Sochaux 7 2 4 1 10
9 Dijon 7 2 3 2 9
10 PAU 7 2 2 3 8
11 Guingamp 7 2 2 3 8
12 Dunkerque 7 2 2 3 8
13 Grenoble 7 2 2 3 8
14 Rodez 7 2 1 4 7
15 Nantes 7 2 1 4 7
16 Clermont Foot 7 0 6 1 6
17 Boulogne 7 0 5 2 5
18 Laval 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Saint Etienne 7 19 8 +11 16
2 Reims 7 15 9 +6 13
3 Rodez 7 14 16 -2 7
4 Metz 7 10 7 +3 10
5 Dijon 7 10 10 0 9
6 Guingamp 7 10 12 -2 8
7 Dunkerque 7 10 12 -2 8
8 RED Star FC 93 7 9 7 +2 14
9 Annecy 7 9 9 0 10
10 Nantes 7 9 13 -4 7
11 Nancy 7 8 7 +1 10
12 Grenoble 7 8 11 -3 8
13 Laval 7 8 14 -6 5
14 Montpellier 7 6 5 +1 12
15 PAU 7 6 6 0 8
16 Sochaux 7 4 5 -1 10
17 Clermont Foot 7 4 6 -2 6
18 Boulogne 7 3 5 -2 5