The model missed the final outcome (Metz win 2–1).
The model had projected Guingamp at 43.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Guingamp Metz ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 25.4% | 47.2% | -21.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.8% | 27.0% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Guingamp | 43.9% | 25.8% | +18.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Metz's win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.4%, a difference of 21.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Metz win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Guingamp by 21.8 percentage points (65.7% vs model 43.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Metz 25.4% · Draw 30.8% · Guingamp 43.9%
- xG · Metz 0.98 — Guingamp 1.36
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Metz 2.04 · Draw 3.56 · Guingamp 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Metz 47.2% · Draw 27.0% · Guingamp 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Metz 2.04 · Draw 3.56 · Guingamp 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Metz 47.2% · Draw 27.0% · Guingamp 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Metz win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligue 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Reims | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Montpellier | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Nancy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Annecy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Sochaux | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Dijon | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | PAU | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Grenoble | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rodez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Nantes | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Clermont Foot | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Boulogne | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 18 | Laval | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 7 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 2 | Reims | 7 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Rodez | 7 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Metz | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Dijon | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Guingamp | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Dunkerque | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | RED Star FC 93 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Annecy | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nantes | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Nancy | 7 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Laval | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 | Montpellier | 7 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | PAU | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 7 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 7 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Boulogne | 7 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
