AI correctly predicted the Dunkerque win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Dunkerque Dunkerque ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 36.4% | 47.8% | -11.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 34.0% | 27.1% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Grenoble | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Dunkerque's win probability at 47.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.4%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dunkerque win 4–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Dunkerque than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dunkerque higher (47.8% vs model 36.4%, 11.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dunkerque win 4–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dunkerque 36.4% · Draw 34.0% · Grenoble 29.6%
- xG · Dunkerque 1.08 — Grenoble 0.95
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dunkerque 2.01 · Draw 3.54 · Grenoble 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Dunkerque 47.8% · Draw 27.1% · Grenoble 25.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dunkerque 2.01 · Draw 3.54 · Grenoble 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Dunkerque 47.8% · Draw 27.1% · Grenoble 25.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dunkerque win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Ligue 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Reims | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | RED Star FC 93 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Annecy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Metz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Sochaux | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dunkerque | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Guingamp | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Nancy | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Rodez | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Dijon | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Boulogne | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | PAU | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Clermont Foot | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Nantes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | Laval | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 6 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Reims | 6 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Rodez | 6 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Dunkerque | 6 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Guingamp | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Metz | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Annecy | 6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dijon | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Grenoble | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nantes | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Laval | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | RED Star FC 93 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Montpellier | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 11 |
| 14 | Nancy | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | PAU | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 6 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | Boulogne | 6 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
