Prediction Audit: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fortuna Sittard

Aug 15, 2026 - 19:00

3 1.36

1 2.07

xG Accuracy: 48%

Cambuur

The model missed the final outcome (Fortuna Sittard win 3–1).

The model had projected Cambuur at 45.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Cambuur Fortuna Sittard ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fortuna Sittard	29.6%	57.7%	-28.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	24.5%	21.9%	+2.6 pp	Aligned
Cambuur	45.9%	20.5%	+25.5 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Fortuna Sittard's win probability at 57.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 28.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Fortuna Sittard win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.43) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Cambuur; match finished Fortuna Sittard
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cambuur by 28.1 percentage points (74.0% vs model 45.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 19:42 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fortuna Sittard 29.6% · Draw 24.5% · Cambuur 45.9%
- xG · Fortuna Sittard 1.36 — Cambuur 2.07
Aug 15, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fortuna Sittard 1.67 · Draw 4.41 · Cambuur 4.71
- Implied 1X2 · Fortuna Sittard 57.7% · Draw 21.9% · Cambuur 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fortuna Sittard 1.67 · Draw 4.41 · Cambuur 4.71
- Implied 1X2 · Fortuna Sittard 57.7% · Draw 21.9% · Cambuur 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Fortuna Sittard win · 3–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 43/100 · Low

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (28 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 12/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3366773

Closing Odds 1.67

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Fortuna Sittard win · Fortuna Sittard 3–1 Cambuur

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Eredivisie
Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 24.5% · Away 45.9%
xG (showing): Fortuna Sittard 1.36 — Cambuur 2.07 (total xG ≈ 3.43)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Cambuur
Model: 45.9% · Implied: 20.5% · Probability edge: +25.4 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 66.1% · No 33.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Eredivisie Matches Track Fortuna Sittard Next Match Prediction Track Cambuur Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Fortuna Sittard & Cambuur!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Eredivisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Feyenoord	7	25	7	+18	17
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	24	10	+14	16
3	Ajax	7	21	9	+12	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	18	6	+12	19
5	GO Ahead Eagles	7	16	14	+2	10
6	Twente	7	15	7	+8	16
7	Excelsior	7	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	15	13	+2	11
9	Fortuna Sittard	7	13	14	-1	13
10	NEC Nijmegen	7	12	13	-1	8
11	Heerenveen	7	11	9	+2	9
12	Utrecht	7	11	24	-13	5
13	Sparta Rotterdam	7	10	17	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	10	19	-9	5
15	ADO Den Haag	7	7	17	-10	2
16	PEC Zwolle	7	6	20	-14	4
17	Willem II	7	6	20	-14	2
18	Telstar	7	5	12	-7	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	12.0	2.7	+9.3	16
2	Feyenoord	7	11.3	3.8	+7.5	17
3	AZ Alkmaar	7	12.4	5.5	+6.9	19
4	Twente	7	5.6	1.5	+4.1	16
5	Ajax	7	5.7	3.1	+2.6	14
6	NEC Nijmegen	7	6.9	4.9	+2.0	8
7	Excelsior	7	4.8	3.9	+0.9	11
8	GO Ahead Eagles	7	6.7	7.7	-1.0	10
9	Telstar	7	6.1	7.1	-1.0	5
10	Groningen	7	7.3	8.6	-1.3	11
11	Heerenveen	7	5.3	7.3	-2.0	9
12	Willem II	7	4.6	6.7	-2.1	2
13	Sparta Rotterdam	7	5.8	8.0	-2.2	5
14	PEC Zwolle	7	4.1	6.4	-2.3	4
15	Utrecht	7	5.3	8.2	-2.9	5
16	Cambuur	7	5.8	11.2	-5.4	5
17	ADO Den Haag	7	3.2	9.3	-6.1	2
18	Fortuna Sittard	7	3.7	10.7	-7.0	13