Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord

Prediction Audit: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
Aug 09, 2026 - 10:15
0 0.94
1 1.77
xG Accuracy: 62%
Feyenoord Feyenoord

AI correctly predicted the Feyenoord win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Feyenoord Feyenoord ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +1.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sparta Rotterdam 19.1% 20.4% -1.4 pp Aligned
Draw 25.3% 23.5% +1.8 pp Aligned
Feyenoord 55.6% 56.1% -0.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Feyenoord win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Feyenoord attacking xG significantly stronger (1.77 vs 0.94)
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Feyenoord win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam 19.1% · Draw 25.3% · Feyenoord 55.6%
    • xG · Sparta Rotterdam 0.94 — Feyenoord 1.77
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Rotterdam 4.69 · Draw 4.08 · Feyenoord 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam 20.4% · Draw 23.5% · Feyenoord 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 10:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Rotterdam 4.69 · Draw 4.08 · Feyenoord 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam 20.4% · Draw 23.5% · Feyenoord 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 10:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Feyenoord win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 90/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2960832

Closing Odds 4.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Feyenoord win · Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 Feyenoord
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eredivisie
  • Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 10:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Sparta Rotterdam 0.94 — Feyenoord 1.77 (total xG ≈ 2.71)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AZ Alkmaar 7 6 1 0 19
2 Feyenoord 7 5 2 0 17
3 PSV Eindhoven 7 5 1 1 16
4 Twente 7 5 1 1 16
5 Ajax 7 4 2 1 14
6 Fortuna Sittard 7 4 1 2 13
7 Excelsior 7 3 2 2 11
8 Groningen 7 3 2 2 11
9 GO Ahead Eagles 7 2 4 1 10
10 Heerenveen 7 2 3 2 9
11 NEC Nijmegen 7 2 2 3 8
12 Sparta Rotterdam 7 1 2 4 5
13 Telstar 7 1 2 4 5
14 Cambuur 7 1 2 4 5
15 Utrecht 7 1 2 4 5
16 PEC Zwolle 7 1 1 5 4
17 ADO Den Haag 7 0 2 5 2
18 Willem II 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Feyenoord 7 25 7 +18 17
2 PSV Eindhoven 7 24 10 +14 16
3 Ajax 7 21 9 +12 14
4 AZ Alkmaar 7 18 6 +12 19
5 GO Ahead Eagles 7 16 14 +2 10
6 Twente 7 15 7 +8 16
7 Excelsior 7 15 9 +6 11
8 Groningen 7 15 13 +2 11
9 Fortuna Sittard 7 13 14 -1 13
10 NEC Nijmegen 7 12 13 -1 8
11 Heerenveen 7 11 9 +2 9
12 Utrecht 7 11 24 -13 5
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 10 17 -7 5
14 Cambuur 7 10 19 -9 5
15 ADO Den Haag 7 7 17 -10 2
16 PEC Zwolle 7 6 20 -14 4
17 Willem II 7 6 20 -14 2
18 Telstar 7 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 7 12.0 2.7 +9.3 16
2 Feyenoord 7 11.3 3.8 +7.5 17
3 AZ Alkmaar 7 12.4 5.5 +6.9 19
4 Twente 7 5.6 1.5 +4.1 16
5 Ajax 7 5.7 3.1 +2.6 14
6 NEC Nijmegen 7 6.9 4.9 +2.0 8
7 Excelsior 7 4.8 3.9 +0.9 11
8 GO Ahead Eagles 7 6.7 7.7 -1.0 10
9 Telstar 7 6.1 7.1 -1.0 5
10 Groningen 7 7.3 8.6 -1.3 11
11 Heerenveen 7 5.3 7.3 -2.0 9
12 Willem II 7 4.6 6.7 -2.1 2
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 5.8 8.0 -2.2 5
14 PEC Zwolle 7 4.1 6.4 -2.3 4
15 Utrecht 7 5.3 8.2 -2.9 5
16 Cambuur 7 5.8 11.2 -5.4 5
17 ADO Den Haag 7 3.2 9.3 -6.1 2
18 Fortuna Sittard 7 3.7 10.7 -7.0 13