Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II

Prediction Audit: GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles
Aug 08, 2026 - 16:45
4 1.26
1 2.30
xG Accuracy: 33%
Willem II Willem II

The model missed the final outcome (GO Ahead Eagles win 4–1).

The model had projected Willem II at 50.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Willem II GO Ahead Eagles ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices GO Ahead Eagles higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: GO Ahead Eagles -35.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
GO Ahead Eagles 25.7% 60.9% -35.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 23.5% 22.4% +1.2 pp Aligned
Willem II 50.8% 16.7% +34.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates GO Ahead Eagles's win probability at 60.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.7%, a difference of 35.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was GO Ahead Eagles win 4–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.56) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Willem II; match finished GO Ahead Eagles
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Willem II by 35.3 percentage points (86.1% vs model 50.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · GO Ahead Eagles 25.7% · Draw 23.6% · Willem II 50.8%
    • xG · GO Ahead Eagles 1.26 — Willem II 2.30
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · GO Ahead Eagles 1.57 · Draw 4.28 · Willem II 5.72
    • Implied 1X2 · GO Ahead Eagles 60.9% · Draw 22.4% · Willem II 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · GO Ahead Eagles 1.57 · Draw 4.28 · Willem II 5.72
    • Implied 1X2 · GO Ahead Eagles 60.9% · Draw 22.4% · Willem II 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result GO Ahead Eagles win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 25/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2827050

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result GO Ahead Eagles win · GO Ahead Eagles 4–1 Willem II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Willem II; market prices GO Ahead Eagles instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: GO Ahead Eagles 1.26 xG vs Willem II 2.30 → Willem II 50.8%
  • Market: GO Ahead Eagles ~16.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AZ Alkmaar 7 6 1 0 19
2 Feyenoord 7 5 2 0 17
3 PSV Eindhoven 7 5 1 1 16
4 Twente 7 5 1 1 16
5 Ajax 7 4 2 1 14
6 Fortuna Sittard 7 4 1 2 13
7 Excelsior 7 3 2 2 11
8 Groningen 7 3 2 2 11
9 GO Ahead Eagles 7 2 4 1 10
10 Heerenveen 7 2 3 2 9
11 NEC Nijmegen 7 2 2 3 8
12 Sparta Rotterdam 7 1 2 4 5
13 Telstar 7 1 2 4 5
14 Cambuur 7 1 2 4 5
15 Utrecht 7 1 2 4 5
16 PEC Zwolle 7 1 1 5 4
17 ADO Den Haag 7 0 2 5 2
18 Willem II 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Feyenoord 7 25 7 +18 17
2 PSV Eindhoven 7 24 10 +14 16
3 Ajax 7 21 9 +12 14
4 AZ Alkmaar 7 18 6 +12 19
5 GO Ahead Eagles 7 16 14 +2 10
6 Twente 7 15 7 +8 16
7 Excelsior 7 15 9 +6 11
8 Groningen 7 15 13 +2 11
9 Fortuna Sittard 7 13 14 -1 13
10 NEC Nijmegen 7 12 13 -1 8
11 Heerenveen 7 11 9 +2 9
12 Utrecht 7 11 24 -13 5
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 10 17 -7 5
14 Cambuur 7 10 19 -9 5
15 ADO Den Haag 7 7 17 -10 2
16 PEC Zwolle 7 6 20 -14 4
17 Willem II 7 6 20 -14 2
18 Telstar 7 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 7 12.0 2.7 +9.3 16
2 Feyenoord 7 11.3 3.8 +7.5 17
3 AZ Alkmaar 7 12.4 5.5 +6.9 19
4 Twente 7 5.6 1.5 +4.1 16
5 Ajax 7 5.7 3.1 +2.6 14
6 NEC Nijmegen 7 6.9 4.9 +2.0 8
7 Excelsior 7 4.8 3.9 +0.9 11
8 GO Ahead Eagles 7 6.7 7.7 -1.0 10
9 Telstar 7 6.1 7.1 -1.0 5
10 Groningen 7 7.3 8.6 -1.3 11
11 Heerenveen 7 5.3 7.3 -2.0 9
12 Willem II 7 4.6 6.7 -2.1 2
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 5.8 8.0 -2.2 5
14 PEC Zwolle 7 4.1 6.4 -2.3 4
15 Utrecht 7 5.3 8.2 -2.9 5
16 Cambuur 7 5.8 11.2 -5.4 5
17 ADO Den Haag 7 3.2 9.3 -6.1 2
18 Fortuna Sittard 7 3.7 10.7 -7.0 13