Prediction Audit: Cambuur vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cambuur

Aug 07, 2026 - 18:00

0 2.46

4 1.37

xG Accuracy: 25%

Excelsior

The model missed the final outcome (Excelsior win 0–4).

The model had projected Cambuur at 60.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Cambuur Excelsior ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Cambuur	60.4%	37.5%	+22.9 pp	Model Edge
Draw	20.4%	27.7%	-7.3 pp	Market Higher
Excelsior	19.2%	34.8%	-15.6 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Cambuur's win probability at 60.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.5%, a difference of 22.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Excelsior win 0–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.83) — 4 goals materialised
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Cambuur; match finished Excelsior

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cambuur by 22.9 percentage points (37.5% vs model 60.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cambuur 60.4% · Draw 20.4% · Excelsior 19.2%
- xG · Cambuur 2.46 — Excelsior 1.37
Aug 07, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cambuur 2.57 · Draw 3.48 · Excelsior 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Cambuur 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Excelsior 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cambuur 2.57 · Draw 3.48 · Excelsior 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Cambuur 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Excelsior 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Excelsior win · 0–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 40/100 · Low

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (23 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (82%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 26/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2680683

Closing Odds 2.57

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Excelsior win · Cambuur 0–4 Excelsior

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Eredivisie
Fixture: Cambuur vs Excelsior
Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 60.4% · Draw 20.4% · Away 19.2%
xG (showing): Cambuur 2.46 — Excelsior 1.37 (total xG ≈ 3.83)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Cambuur
Model: 60.4% · Implied: 37.5% · Probability edge: +22.9 pts · Est. EV: +13.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 69.2% · No 30.8%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Feyenoord	7	25	7	+18	17
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	24	10	+14	16
3	Ajax	7	21	9	+12	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	18	6	+12	19
5	GO Ahead Eagles	7	16	14	+2	10
6	Twente	7	15	7	+8	16
7	Excelsior	7	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	15	13	+2	11
9	Fortuna Sittard	7	13	14	-1	13
10	NEC Nijmegen	7	12	13	-1	8
11	Heerenveen	7	11	9	+2	9
12	Utrecht	7	11	24	-13	5
13	Sparta Rotterdam	7	10	17	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	10	19	-9	5
15	ADO Den Haag	7	7	17	-10	2
16	PEC Zwolle	7	6	20	-14	4
17	Willem II	7	6	20	-14	2
18	Telstar	7	5	12	-7	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	12.0	2.7	+9.3	16
2	Feyenoord	7	11.3	3.8	+7.5	17
3	AZ Alkmaar	7	12.4	5.5	+6.9	19
4	Twente	7	5.6	1.5	+4.1	16
5	Ajax	7	5.7	3.1	+2.6	14
6	NEC Nijmegen	7	6.9	4.9	+2.0	8
7	Excelsior	7	4.8	3.9	+0.9	11
8	GO Ahead Eagles	7	6.7	7.7	-1.0	10
9	Telstar	7	6.1	7.1	-1.0	5
10	Groningen	7	7.3	8.6	-1.3	11
11	Heerenveen	7	5.3	7.3	-2.0	9
12	Willem II	7	4.6	6.7	-2.1	2
13	Sparta Rotterdam	7	5.8	8.0	-2.2	5
14	PEC Zwolle	7	4.1	6.4	-2.3	4
15	Utrecht	7	5.3	8.2	-2.9	5
16	Cambuur	7	5.8	11.2	-5.4	5
17	ADO Den Haag	7	3.2	9.3	-6.1	2
18	Fortuna Sittard	7	3.7	10.7	-7.0	13