Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / Roda vs Jong PSV

Prediction Audit: Roda vs Jong PSV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Roda Roda
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.50
1 1.61
xG Accuracy: 74%
Jong PSV Jong PSV

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Jong PSV at 39.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jong PSV Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Roda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Roda -29.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Roda 34.3% 63.4% -29.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.6% 20.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Jong PSV 39.1% 16.1% +23.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Roda's win probability at 63.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.3%, a difference of 29.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Jong PSV; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jong PSV by 29.0 percentage points (68.1% vs model 39.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 03, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Roda 34.4% · Draw 26.6% · Jong PSV 39.0%
    • xG · Roda 1.50 — Jong PSV 1.61
  2. Oct 09, 2026 · 17:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
    • 1X2 odds · Roda 1.46 · Draw 4.50 · Jong PSV 5.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Roda 63.4% · Draw 20.6% · Jong PSV 16.1%
    • Bookmaker · bet365
  3. Oct 09, 2026 · 17:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Roda 1.46 · Draw 4.50 · Jong PSV 5.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Roda 63.4% · Draw 20.6% · Jong PSV 16.1%
    • Bookmaker · bet365
  4. Oct 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12702551

Closing Odds 1.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Roda 1–1 Jong PSV
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: Roda vs Jong PSV
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.4% · Draw 26.6% · Away 39.1%
  • xG (showing): Roda 1.5 — Jong PSV 1.61 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.9% · Over 2.5 60.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 63.6% · No 36.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.6% · No 36.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 9 7 1 1 22
2 Almere City FC 9 6 1 2 19
3 VVV Venlo 9 6 0 3 18
4 Emmen 9 5 1 3 16
5 MVV 9 5 1 3 16
6 Roda 9 4 3 2 15
7 Waalwijk 9 3 5 1 14
8 Vitesse 9 4 2 3 14
9 NAC Breda 9 4 2 3 14
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 9 4 0 5 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 9 3 2 4 11
14 Helmond Sport 9 2 3 4 9
15 FC OSS 9 3 0 6 9
16 Den Bosch 9 2 2 5 8
17 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
18 Dordrecht 9 2 2 5 8
19 De Graafschap 9 2 2 5 8
20 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 9 28 12 +16 22
2 VVV Venlo 9 23 14 +9 18
3 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
4 FC Volendam 9 20 17 +3 12
5 Almere City FC 9 19 7 +12 19
6 Waalwijk 9 19 12 +7 14
7 Emmen 9 19 18 +1 16
8 NAC Breda 9 19 19 0 14
9 Vitesse 9 15 13 +2 14
10 Helmond Sport 9 15 16 -1 9
11 FC Eindhoven 9 15 19 -4 11
12 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
13 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
14 Den Bosch 9 13 18 -5 8
15 MVV 9 13 19 -6 16
16 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
17 Dordrecht 9 13 24 -11 8
18 FC OSS 9 12 14 -2 9
19 De Graafschap 9 11 22 -11 8
20 Roda 9 9 7 +2 15
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 9 12.6 6.8 +5.8 22
2 FC Volendam 9 10.7 6.4 +4.3 12
3 NAC Breda 9 10.5 7.1 +3.4 14
4 Almere City FC 9 10.0 6.6 +3.4 19
5 Emmen 9 10.4 7.2 +3.2 16
6 Den Bosch 9 10.5 7.8 +2.7 8
7 Jong PSV 9 9.9 7.2 +2.7 12
8 MVV 9 7.0 4.5 +2.5 16
9 Vitesse 9 9.3 7.8 +1.5 14
10 Roda 9 9.6 8.5 +1.1 15
11 Jong AZ 9 7.7 6.6 +1.1 13
12 FC OSS 9 8.1 8.7 -0.6 9
13 Waalwijk 9 5.5 7.0 -1.5 14
14 VVV Venlo 9 8.1 10.3 -2.2 18
15 De Graafschap 9 7.0 9.2 -2.2 8
16 Jong Ajax 9 9.8 13.2 -3.4 8
17 Jong Utrecht 9 7.0 11.2 -4.2 7
18 Helmond Sport 9 4.1 9.0 -4.9 9
19 Dordrecht 9 6.0 11.9 -5.9 8
20 FC Eindhoven 9 4.4 11.0 -6.6 11
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions