Prediction Audit: Vitesse vs Jong PSV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vitesse

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:30

3 1.65

1 1.76

xG Accuracy: 56%

Jong PSV

The model missed the final outcome (Vitesse win 3–1).

The model had projected Jong PSV at 39.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Jong PSV Vitesse ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vitesse	35.2%	59.1%	-23.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.1%	20.6%	+4.5 pp	Aligned
Jong PSV	39.8%	20.3%	+19.5 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Vitesse's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Vitesse win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.41) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Jong PSV; match finished Vitesse

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jong PSV by 23.9 percentage points (63.8% vs model 39.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vitesse 35.2% · Draw 25.1% · Jong PSV 39.7%
- xG · Vitesse 1.65 — Jong PSV 1.76
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Vitesse 1.60 · Draw 4.59 · Jong PSV 4.67
- Implied 1X2 · Vitesse 59.1% · Draw 20.6% · Jong PSV 20.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vitesse 1.60 · Draw 4.59 · Jong PSV 4.67
- Implied 1X2 · Vitesse 59.1% · Draw 20.6% · Jong PSV 20.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Vitesse win · 3–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (24 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8694498

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Vitesse win · Vitesse 3–1 Jong PSV

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Vitesse vs Jong PSV
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 25.1% · Away 39.7%
xG (showing): Vitesse 1.65 — Jong PSV 1.76 (total xG ≈ 3.41)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Jong PSV
Model: 39.7% · Implied: 20.3% · Probability edge: +19.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 68.1% · No 31.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	8	7	0	1	21
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	16
3	MVV	8	5	1	2	16
4	VVV Venlo	8	5	0	3	15
5	Roda	8	4	3	1	15
6	Emmen	8	5	0	3	15
7	Waalwijk	8	3	4	1	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13
9	NAC Breda	8	4	1	3	13
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	10
14	Helmond Sport	8	2	2	4	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
16	Den Bosch	7	2	1	4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	7
18	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7
19	FC OSS	8	2	0	6	6
20	De Graafschap	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	8	26	10	+16	21
2	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
3	VVV Venlo	8	21	14	+7	15
4	FC Volendam	8	20	16	+4	12
5	Almere City FC	8	18	7	+11	16
6	Waalwijk	8	18	11	+7	13
7	Emmen	8	18	17	+1	15
8	NAC Breda	8	17	17	0	13
9	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
10	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
11	Vitesse	8	13	11	+2	13
12	Helmond Sport	8	13	14	-1	8
13	FC Eindhoven	8	13	17	-4	10
14	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
15	MVV	8	12	15	-3	16
16	Den Bosch	7	12	16	-4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	12	23	-11	7
18	Roda	8	9	5	+4	15
19	FC OSS	8	8	13	-5	6
20	De Graafschap	7	8	20	-12	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Volendam	8	9.6	5.1	+4.5	12
2	Heracles	8	10.1	6.0	+4.1	21
3	Emmen	8	9.2	6.2	+3.0	15
4	NAC Breda	8	9.8	6.9	+2.9	13
5	MVV	8	6.7	3.8	+2.9	16
6	Jong PSV	9	8.5	5.7	+2.8	12
7	Den Bosch	7	9.6	7.0	+2.6	7
8	Vitesse	8	8.0	6.8	+1.2	13
9	Jong AZ	9	6.9	5.7	+1.2	13
10	Almere City FC	8	7.2	6.1	+1.1	16
11	Roda	8	8.1	7.2	+0.9	15
12	Waalwijk	8	4.8	4.6	+0.2	13
13	FC OSS	8	5.3	7.3	-2.0	6
14	De Graafschap	7	5.4	7.6	-2.2	4
15	Jong Ajax	9	8.4	10.8	-2.4	8
16	VVV Venlo	8	5.7	8.9	-3.2	15
17	Helmond Sport	8	2.6	6.2	-3.6	8
18	Jong Utrecht	9	5.4	9.6	-4.2	7
19	FC Eindhoven	8	3.9	8.2	-4.3	10
20	Dordrecht	8	5.0	10.7	-5.7	7