Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / Dordrecht vs Jong AZ

Prediction Audit: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dordrecht Dordrecht
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.28
6 1.93
xG Accuracy: 20%
Jong AZ Jong AZ

AI correctly predicted the Jong AZ win.

The match finished 3–6, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jong AZ Jong AZ ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-6 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dordrecht higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dordrecht -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dordrecht 24.0% 42.2% -18.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.7% 23.9% +0.8 pp Aligned
Jong AZ 51.3% 33.9% +17.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dordrecht's win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 24.0%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Jong AZ win 3–6).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dordrecht than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.21) — 9 goals materialised
  • Jong AZ attacking xG significantly stronger (1.93 vs 1.28)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Jong AZ higher (69.5% vs model 51.3%, 18.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Jong AZ win 3–6).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dordrecht 24.0% · Draw 24.8% · Jong AZ 51.3%
    • xG · Dordrecht 1.28 — Jong AZ 1.93
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:22 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dordrecht 2.26 · Draw 3.98 · Jong AZ 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Dordrecht 42.2% · Draw 23.9% · Jong AZ 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dordrecht 2.26 · Draw 3.98 · Jong AZ 2.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Dordrecht 42.2% · Draw 23.9% · Jong AZ 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jong AZ win · 3–6
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6154955

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jong AZ win · Dordrecht 3–6 Jong AZ
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.0% · Draw 24.8% · Away 51.3%
  • xG (showing): Dordrecht 1.28 — Jong AZ 1.93 (total xG ≈ 3.21)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Jong AZ
  • Model: 51.3% · Implied: 33.9% · Probability edge: +17.4 pts · Est. EV: +11.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.0% · No 37.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almere City FC 8 5 1 2 16
3 MVV 8 5 1 2 16
4 VVV Venlo 8 5 0 3 15
5 Roda 8 4 3 1 15
6 Emmen 8 5 0 3 15
7 Waalwijk 8 3 4 1 13
8 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 13
9 NAC Breda 8 4 1 3 13
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 8 4 0 4 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 8 3 1 4 10
14 Helmond Sport 8 2 2 4 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
19 FC OSS 8 2 0 6 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 8 26 10 +16 21
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 8 21 14 +7 15
4 FC Volendam 8 20 16 +4 12
5 Almere City FC 8 18 7 +11 16
6 Waalwijk 8 18 11 +7 13
7 Emmen 8 18 17 +1 15
8 NAC Breda 8 17 17 0 13
9 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
10 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
11 Vitesse 8 13 11 +2 13
12 Helmond Sport 8 13 14 -1 8
13 FC Eindhoven 8 13 17 -4 10
14 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
15 MVV 8 12 15 -3 16
16 Den Bosch 7 12 16 -4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 12 23 -11 7
18 Roda 8 9 5 +4 15
19 FC OSS 8 8 13 -5 6
20 De Graafschap 7 8 20 -12 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 8 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 8 10.1 6.0 +4.1 21
3 Emmen 8 9.2 6.2 +3.0 15
4 NAC Breda 8 9.8 6.9 +2.9 13
5 MVV 8 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 7 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 8 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 8 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 8 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 8 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 8 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 7 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 8 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 8 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 8 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 8 5.0 10.7 -5.7 7
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions