Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / Heracles vs De Graafschap

Prediction Audit: Heracles vs De Graafschap Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Heracles Heracles
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:00
5 1.83
0 1.51
xG Accuracy: 28%
De Graafschap De Graafschap

AI correctly predicted the Heracles win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Heracles Heracles ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Heracles higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Heracles -19.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Heracles 44.1% 63.2% -19.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.1% 19.0% +6.1 pp Model Higher
De Graafschap 30.8% 17.7% +13.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Heracles's win probability at 63.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.1%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Heracles win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Heracles than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.34) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Heracles higher (63.2% vs model 44.1%, 19.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Heracles win 5–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Heracles 44.1% · Draw 25.1% · De Graafschap 30.8%
    • xG · Heracles 1.83 — De Graafschap 1.51
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Heracles 1.50 · Draw 4.98 · De Graafschap 5.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Heracles 63.2% · Draw 19.0% · De Graafschap 17.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Heracles 1.50 · Draw 4.98 · De Graafschap 5.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Heracles 63.2% · Draw 19.0% · De Graafschap 17.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Heracles win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5925563

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Heracles win · Heracles 5–0 De Graafschap
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: Heracles vs De Graafschap
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.1% · Draw 25.1% · Away 30.8%
  • xG (showing): Heracles 1.83 — De Graafschap 1.51 (total xG ≈ 3.34)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.1% · Over 2.5 64.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 9 7 1 1 22
2 Almere City FC 8 5 1 2 16
3 MVV 8 5 1 2 16
4 VVV Venlo 8 5 0 3 15
5 Roda 8 4 3 1 15
6 Emmen 8 5 0 3 15
7 Waalwijk 8 3 4 1 13
8 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 13
9 NAC Breda 8 4 1 3 13
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 8 4 0 4 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 8 3 1 4 10
14 Helmond Sport 9 2 3 4 9
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
16 Den Bosch 8 2 1 5 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 7
18 De Graafschap 8 2 1 5 7
19 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
20 FC OSS 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 9 28 12 +16 22
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 8 21 14 +7 15
4 FC Volendam 8 20 16 +4 12
5 Almere City FC 8 18 7 +11 16
6 Waalwijk 8 18 11 +7 13
7 Emmen 8 18 17 +1 15
8 NAC Breda 8 17 17 0 13
9 Helmond Sport 9 15 16 -1 9
10 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
11 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
12 Vitesse 8 13 11 +2 13
13 FC Eindhoven 8 13 17 -4 10
14 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
15 MVV 8 12 15 -3 16
16 Den Bosch 8 12 17 -5 7
17 Dordrecht 8 12 23 -11 7
18 Roda 8 9 5 +4 15
19 De Graafschap 8 9 20 -11 7
20 FC OSS 8 8 13 -5 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 8 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 9 10.1 6.0 +4.1 22
3 Emmen 8 9.2 6.2 +3.0 15
4 NAC Breda 8 9.8 6.9 +2.9 13
5 MVV 8 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 8 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 8 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 8 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 8 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 8 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 8 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 8 5.4 7.6 -2.2 7
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 8 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 9 2.6 6.2 -3.6 9
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 8 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 8 5.0 10.7 -5.7 7
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions