Prediction Audit: Waalwijk vs Jong PSV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Waalwijk

Aug 28, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.23

2 1.73

xG Accuracy: 75%

Jong PSV

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Jong PSV at 47.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Jong PSV Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Waalwijk	25.8%	55.8%	-30.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	26.5%	21.4%	+5.2 pp	Model Higher
Jong PSV	47.7%	22.9%	+24.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Waalwijk's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.8%, a difference of 30.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.96) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Jong PSV; match finished Draw
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jong PSV by 30.0 percentage points (77.7% vs model 47.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Waalwijk 25.8% · Draw 26.6% · Jong PSV 47.7%
- xG · Waalwijk 1.23 — Jong PSV 1.73
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Waalwijk 1.70 · Draw 4.44 · Jong PSV 4.14
- Implied 1X2 · Waalwijk 55.8% · Draw 21.4% · Jong PSV 22.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 28, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Waalwijk 1.70 · Draw 4.44 · Jong PSV 4.14
- Implied 1X2 · Waalwijk 55.8% · Draw 21.4% · Jong PSV 22.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 28, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (30 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4941260

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Waalwijk 2–2 Jong PSV

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong PSV
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 26.6% · Away 47.7%
xG (showing): Waalwijk 1.23 — Jong PSV 1.73 (total xG ≈ 2.96)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Jong PSV
Model: 47.7% · Implied: 22.9% · Probability edge: +24.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 59.7% · No 40.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	8	7	0	1	21
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	16
3	MVV	8	5	1	2	16
4	VVV Venlo	8	5	0	3	15
5	Roda	8	4	3	1	15
6	Emmen	8	5	0	3	15
7	Waalwijk	8	3	4	1	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13
9	NAC Breda	8	4	1	3	13
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	10
14	Helmond Sport	8	2	2	4	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
16	Den Bosch	7	2	1	4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	7
18	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7
19	FC OSS	8	2	0	6	6
20	De Graafschap	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	8	26	10	+16	21
2	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
3	VVV Venlo	8	21	14	+7	15
4	FC Volendam	8	20	16	+4	12
5	Almere City FC	8	18	7	+11	16
6	Waalwijk	8	18	11	+7	13
7	Emmen	8	18	17	+1	15
8	NAC Breda	8	17	17	0	13
9	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
10	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
11	Vitesse	8	13	11	+2	13
12	Helmond Sport	8	13	14	-1	8
13	FC Eindhoven	8	13	17	-4	10
14	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
15	MVV	8	12	15	-3	16
16	Den Bosch	7	12	16	-4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	12	23	-11	7
18	Roda	8	9	5	+4	15
19	FC OSS	8	8	13	-5	6
20	De Graafschap	7	8	20	-12	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Volendam	8	9.6	5.1	+4.5	12
2	Heracles	8	10.1	6.0	+4.1	21
3	Emmen	8	9.2	6.2	+3.0	15
4	NAC Breda	8	9.8	6.9	+2.9	13
5	MVV	8	6.7	3.8	+2.9	16
6	Jong PSV	9	8.5	5.7	+2.8	12
7	Den Bosch	7	9.6	7.0	+2.6	7
8	Vitesse	8	8.0	6.8	+1.2	13
9	Jong AZ	9	6.9	5.7	+1.2	13
10	Almere City FC	8	7.2	6.1	+1.1	16
11	Roda	8	8.1	7.2	+0.9	15
12	Waalwijk	8	4.8	4.6	+0.2	13
13	FC OSS	8	5.3	7.3	-2.0	6
14	De Graafschap	7	5.4	7.6	-2.2	4
15	Jong Ajax	9	8.4	10.8	-2.4	8
16	VVV Venlo	8	5.7	8.9	-3.2	15
17	Helmond Sport	8	2.6	6.2	-3.6	8
18	Jong Utrecht	9	5.4	9.6	-4.2	7
19	FC Eindhoven	8	3.9	8.2	-4.3	10
20	Dordrecht	8	5.0	10.7	-5.7	7