Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap

Prediction Audit: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
Aug 23, 2026 - 14:45
2 1.44
1 2.31
xG Accuracy: 60%
De Graafschap De Graafschap

The model missed the final outcome (VVV Venlo win 2–1).

The model had projected De Graafschap at 53.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 De Graafschap VVV Venlo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 2-2, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates De Graafschap considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: De Graafschap +11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
VVV Venlo 24.3% 33.7% -9.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 22.4% 24.2% -1.8 pp Aligned
De Graafschap 53.3% 42.1% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates De Graafschap's win probability at 53.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 42.1%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was VVV Venlo win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on De Graafschap.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.75) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned De Graafschap; match finished VVV Venlo
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on De Graafschap by 11.2 percentage points (42.1% vs model 53.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · VVV Venlo 24.3% · Draw 22.4% · De Graafschap 53.2%
    • xG · VVV Venlo 1.44 — De Graafschap 2.31
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · VVV Venlo 2.82 · Draw 3.93 · De Graafschap 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · VVV Venlo 33.7% · Draw 24.2% · De Graafschap 42.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · VVV Venlo 2.82 · Draw 3.93 · De Graafschap 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · VVV Venlo 33.7% · Draw 24.2% · De Graafschap 42.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 14:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result VVV Venlo win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (71%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4366150

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VVV Venlo win · VVV Venlo 2–1 De Graafschap
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 14:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): VVV Venlo 1.44 — De Graafschap 2.31 (total xG ≈ 3.75)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almere City FC 8 5 1 2 16
3 MVV 8 5 1 2 16
4 VVV Venlo 8 5 0 3 15
5 Roda 8 4 3 1 15
6 Emmen 8 5 0 3 15
7 Waalwijk 8 3 4 1 13
8 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 13
9 NAC Breda 8 4 1 3 13
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 8 4 0 4 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 8 3 1 4 10
14 Helmond Sport 8 2 2 4 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
19 FC OSS 8 2 0 6 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 8 26 10 +16 21
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 8 21 14 +7 15
4 FC Volendam 8 20 16 +4 12
5 Almere City FC 8 18 7 +11 16
6 Waalwijk 8 18 11 +7 13
7 Emmen 8 18 17 +1 15
8 NAC Breda 8 17 17 0 13
9 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
10 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
11 Vitesse 8 13 11 +2 13
12 Helmond Sport 8 13 14 -1 8
13 FC Eindhoven 8 13 17 -4 10
14 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
15 MVV 8 12 15 -3 16
16 Den Bosch 7 12 16 -4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 12 23 -11 7
18 Roda 8 9 5 +4 15
19 FC OSS 8 8 13 -5 6
20 De Graafschap 7 8 20 -12 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 8 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 8 10.1 6.0 +4.1 21
3 Emmen 8 9.2 6.2 +3.0 15
4 NAC Breda 8 9.8 6.9 +2.9 13
5 MVV 8 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 7 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 8 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 8 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 8 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 8 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 8 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 7 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 8 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 8 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 8 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 8 5.0 10.7 -5.7 7
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions