Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / De Graafschap vs Jong AZ

Prediction Audit: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

De Graafschap De Graafschap
Aug 17, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.86
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 34%
Jong AZ Jong AZ

The model missed the final outcome (Jong AZ win 2–5).

The model had projected De Graafschap at 50.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 De Graafschap Jong AZ ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
De Graafschap 50.3% 54.9% -4.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.4% 19.2% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Jong AZ 24.3% 25.9% -1.6 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 25.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.2%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Jong AZ win 2–5.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.11) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned De Graafschap; match finished Jong AZ
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on De Graafschap by 6.2 percentage points (44.1% vs model 50.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · De Graafschap 50.3% · Draw 25.4% · Jong AZ 24.3%
    • xG · De Graafschap 1.86 — Jong AZ 1.25
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · De Graafschap 1.72 · Draw 4.93 · Jong AZ 3.69
    • Implied 1X2 · De Graafschap 55.1% · Draw 19.2% · Jong AZ 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · De Graafschap 1.73 · Draw 4.94 · Jong AZ 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · De Graafschap 54.9% · Draw 19.2% · Jong AZ 25.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jong AZ win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3619603

Closing Odds 4.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jong AZ win · De Graafschap 2–5 Jong AZ
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 24.3%
  • xG (showing): De Graafschap 1.86 — Jong AZ 1.25 (total xG ≈ 3.11)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.9% · Over 2.5 60.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.6% · No 38.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 61.6% · No 38.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 6 6 0 0 18
2 Almere City FC 6 4 1 1 13
3 MVV 6 4 1 1 13
4 VVV Venlo 6 4 0 2 12
5 Emmen 6 4 0 2 12
6 Roda 6 3 2 1 11
7 Jong PSV 7 3 2 2 11
8 Waalwijk 6 2 4 0 10
9 Vitesse 6 3 1 2 10
10 FC Volendam 6 3 0 3 9
11 Jong AZ 7 3 0 4 9
12 Helmond Sport 6 2 2 2 8
13 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 7
14 FC Eindhoven 6 2 1 3 7
15 Jong Ajax 7 2 1 4 7
16 Den Bosch 6 1 1 4 4
17 Dordrecht 6 1 1 4 4
18 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 4
19 Jong Utrecht 7 1 1 5 4
20 FC OSS 6 1 0 5 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 6 24 9 +15 18
2 Jong AZ 7 17 15 +2 9
3 VVV Venlo 6 16 10 +6 12
4 FC Volendam 6 16 10 +6 9
5 Emmen 6 16 14 +2 12
6 Almere City FC 6 15 4 +11 13
7 Waalwijk 6 12 8 +4 10
8 Helmond Sport 6 12 10 +2 8
9 Jong PSV 7 12 12 0 11
10 Jong Ajax 7 12 16 -4 7
11 NAC Breda 6 11 14 -3 7
12 Vitesse 6 10 8 +2 10
13 Den Bosch 6 10 15 -5 4
14 MVV 6 9 9 0 13
15 Dordrecht 6 9 18 -9 4
16 FC Eindhoven 6 8 12 -4 7
17 Jong Utrecht 7 8 17 -9 4
18 Roda 6 7 5 +2 11
19 De Graafschap 6 7 18 -11 4
20 FC OSS 6 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 6 9.6 5.1 +4.5 9
2 Heracles 6 10.1 6.0 +4.1 18
3 Emmen 6 9.2 6.2 +3.0 12
4 NAC Breda 6 9.8 6.9 +2.9 7
5 MVV 6 6.7 3.8 +2.9 13
6 Jong PSV 7 8.5 5.7 +2.8 11
7 Den Bosch 6 9.6 7.0 +2.6 4
8 Vitesse 6 8.0 6.8 +1.2 10
9 Jong AZ 7 6.9 5.7 +1.2 9
10 Almere City FC 6 7.2 6.1 +1.1 13
11 Roda 6 8.1 7.2 +0.9 11
12 Waalwijk 6 4.8 4.6 +0.2 10
13 FC OSS 6 5.3 7.3 -2.0 3
14 De Graafschap 6 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 7 8.4 10.8 -2.4 7
16 VVV Venlo 6 5.7 8.9 -3.2 12
17 Helmond Sport 6 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 7 5.4 9.6 -4.2 4
19 FC Eindhoven 6 3.9 8.2 -4.3 7
20 Dordrecht 6 5.0 10.7 -5.7 4
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions