Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / Den Bosch vs Almere City FC

Prediction Audit: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Den Bosch Den Bosch
Aug 08, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.32
1 1.94
xG Accuracy: 71%
Almere City FC Almere City FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Almere City FC at 50.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Almere City FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Almere City FC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Den Bosch 1.32 — Almere City FC 1.94
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2822257

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Den Bosch 1–1 Almere City FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Den Bosch 1.32 — Almere City FC 1.94 (total xG ≈ 3.26)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 10 8 1 1 25
2 Almere City FC 10 7 1 2 22
3 VVV Venlo 10 7 0 3 21
4 Emmen 10 6 1 3 19
5 NAC Breda 10 5 2 3 17
6 Roda 10 4 4 2 16
7 MVV 10 5 1 4 16
8 FC Volendam 10 5 0 5 15
9 Waalwijk 10 3 5 2 14
10 Vitesse 10 4 2 4 14
11 Jong AZ 10 4 1 5 13
12 Jong PSV 10 3 4 3 13
13 FC OSS 10 4 0 6 12
14 Den Bosch 10 3 2 5 11
15 FC Eindhoven 10 3 2 5 11
16 De Graafschap 10 3 2 5 11
17 Helmond Sport 10 2 3 5 9
18 Jong Ajax 10 2 2 6 8
19 Dordrecht 10 2 2 6 8
20 Jong Utrecht 10 2 1 7 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 10 31 12 +19 25
2 VVV Venlo 10 26 14 +12 21
3 Almere City FC 10 22 7 +15 22
4 FC Volendam 10 22 17 +5 15
5 Emmen 10 22 18 +4 19
6 Jong AZ 10 22 18 +4 13
7 NAC Breda 10 20 19 +1 17
8 Waalwijk 10 19 15 +4 14
9 Helmond Sport 10 16 19 -3 9
10 Jong Utrecht 10 16 23 -7 7
11 Vitesse 10 15 15 0 14
12 FC OSS 10 15 15 0 12
13 Jong PSV 10 15 17 -2 13
14 FC Eindhoven 10 15 22 -7 11
15 Den Bosch 10 14 18 -4 11
16 MVV 10 13 20 -7 16
17 De Graafschap 10 13 23 -10 11
18 Jong Ajax 10 13 25 -12 8
19 Dordrecht 10 13 27 -14 8
20 Roda 10 10 8 +2 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 10 12.6 6.8 +5.8 25
2 FC Volendam 10 10.7 6.4 +4.3 15
3 NAC Breda 10 10.5 7.1 +3.4 17
4 Almere City FC 10 10.0 6.6 +3.4 22
5 Emmen 10 10.4 7.2 +3.2 19
6 Den Bosch 10 10.5 7.8 +2.7 11
7 Jong PSV 10 9.9 7.3 +2.6 13
8 MVV 10 7.0 4.5 +2.5 16
9 Vitesse 10 9.3 7.8 +1.5 14
10 Roda 10 9.7 8.5 +1.2 16
11 Jong AZ 10 7.7 6.6 +1.1 13
12 FC OSS 10 8.1 8.7 -0.6 12
13 Waalwijk 10 5.5 7.0 -1.5 14
14 VVV Venlo 10 8.1 10.3 -2.2 21
15 De Graafschap 10 7.0 9.2 -2.2 11
16 Jong Ajax 10 9.8 13.2 -3.4 8
17 Jong Utrecht 10 7.0 11.2 -4.2 7
18 Helmond Sport 10 4.1 9.0 -4.9 9
19 Dordrecht 10 6.0 11.9 -5.9 8
20 FC Eindhoven 10 4.4 11.0 -6.6 11
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions