Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / FC OSS vs NAC Breda

Prediction Audit: FC OSS vs NAC Breda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC OSS FC OSS
Aug 07, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.16
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 59%
NAC Breda NAC Breda

The model missed the final outcome (NAC Breda win 1–2).

The model had projected FC OSS at 56.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC OSS NAC Breda ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices NAC Breda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NAC Breda -35.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC OSS 56.8% 22.3% +34.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 22.7% 21.9% +0.9 pp Aligned
NAC Breda 20.5% 55.8% -35.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates NAC Breda's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 20.5%, a difference of 35.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was NAC Breda win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.42) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC OSS; match finished NAC Breda
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC OSS by 35.3 percentage points (92.1% vs model 56.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC OSS 56.8% · Draw 22.7% · NAC Breda 20.5%
    • xG · FC OSS 2.16 — NAC Breda 1.26
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC OSS 4.25 · Draw 4.34 · NAC Breda 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · FC OSS 22.3% · Draw 21.9% · NAC Breda 55.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC OSS 4.25 · Draw 4.34 · NAC Breda 1.70
    • Implied 1X2 · FC OSS 22.3% · Draw 21.9% · NAC Breda 55.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NAC Breda win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 25/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (60%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2680506

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NAC Breda win · FC OSS 1–2 NAC Breda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FC OSS; market prices NAC Breda instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FC OSS 2.16 xG vs NAC Breda 1.26 → FC OSS 56.8%
  • Market: NAC Breda ~22.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 33.6% · Over 2.5 66.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almere City FC 8 5 1 2 16
3 MVV 8 5 1 2 16
4 VVV Venlo 8 5 0 3 15
5 Roda 8 4 3 1 15
6 Emmen 8 5 0 3 15
7 Waalwijk 8 3 4 1 13
8 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 13
9 NAC Breda 8 4 1 3 13
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 8 4 0 4 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 8 3 1 4 10
14 Helmond Sport 8 2 2 4 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
19 FC OSS 8 2 0 6 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 8 26 10 +16 21
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 8 21 14 +7 15
4 FC Volendam 8 20 16 +4 12
5 Almere City FC 8 18 7 +11 16
6 Waalwijk 8 18 11 +7 13
7 Emmen 8 18 17 +1 15
8 NAC Breda 8 17 17 0 13
9 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
10 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
11 Vitesse 8 13 11 +2 13
12 Helmond Sport 8 13 14 -1 8
13 FC Eindhoven 8 13 17 -4 10
14 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
15 MVV 8 12 15 -3 16
16 Den Bosch 7 12 16 -4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 12 23 -11 7
18 Roda 8 9 5 +4 15
19 FC OSS 8 8 13 -5 6
20 De Graafschap 7 8 20 -12 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 8 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 8 10.1 6.0 +4.1 21
3 Emmen 8 9.2 6.2 +3.0 15
4 NAC Breda 8 9.8 6.9 +2.9 13
5 MVV 8 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 7 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 8 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 8 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 8 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 8 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 8 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 7 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 8 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 8 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 8 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 8 5.0 10.7 -5.7 7
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions