Prediction Audit: Emmen vs Roda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Emmen

Aug 07, 2026 - 18:00

1 2.30

0 1.64

xG Accuracy: 45%

Roda

AI correctly predicted the Emmen win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Emmen Emmen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Emmen	51.7%	38.7%	+13.0 pp	Model Edge
Draw	21.8%	24.7%	-2.9 pp	Aligned
Roda	26.5%	36.6%	-10.2 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Emmen's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 38.7%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Emmen win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Emmen.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Emmen attacking xG significantly stronger (2.30 vs 1.64)

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Emmen more conservatively (38.7% vs model 51.7%, 13.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Emmen win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Emmen 51.8% · Draw 21.8% · Roda 26.4%
- xG · Emmen 2.30 — Roda 1.64
Aug 07, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Emmen 2.46 · Draw 3.86 · Roda 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Emmen 38.7% · Draw 24.7% · Roda 36.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Emmen 2.46 · Draw 3.86 · Roda 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Emmen 38.7% · Draw 24.7% · Roda 36.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 07, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Emmen win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100

Betting Confidence 40/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2680451

Closing Odds 2.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Emmen win · Emmen 1–0 Roda

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Emmen vs Roda
Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 51.8% · Draw 21.8% · Away 26.4%
xG (showing): Emmen 2.3 — Roda 1.64 (total xG ≈ 3.94)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Emmen
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +13.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 73.5% · No 26.5%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	8	7	0	1	21
2	Almere City FC	8	5	1	2	16
3	MVV	8	5	1	2	16
4	VVV Venlo	8	5	0	3	15
5	Roda	8	4	3	1	15
6	Emmen	8	5	0	3	15
7	Waalwijk	8	3	4	1	13
8	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	13
9	NAC Breda	8	4	1	3	13
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
11	FC Volendam	8	4	0	4	12
12	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
13	FC Eindhoven	8	3	1	4	10
14	Helmond Sport	8	2	2	4	8
15	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
16	Den Bosch	7	2	1	4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	2	1	5	7
18	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7
19	FC OSS	8	2	0	6	6
20	De Graafschap	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	8	26	10	+16	21
2	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
3	VVV Venlo	8	21	14	+7	15
4	FC Volendam	8	20	16	+4	12
5	Almere City FC	8	18	7	+11	16
6	Waalwijk	8	18	11	+7	13
7	Emmen	8	18	17	+1	15
8	NAC Breda	8	17	17	0	13
9	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
10	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
11	Vitesse	8	13	11	+2	13
12	Helmond Sport	8	13	14	-1	8
13	FC Eindhoven	8	13	17	-4	10
14	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
15	MVV	8	12	15	-3	16
16	Den Bosch	7	12	16	-4	7
17	Dordrecht	8	12	23	-11	7
18	Roda	8	9	5	+4	15
19	FC OSS	8	8	13	-5	6
20	De Graafschap	7	8	20	-12	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Volendam	8	9.6	5.1	+4.5	12
2	Heracles	8	10.1	6.0	+4.1	21
3	Emmen	8	9.2	6.2	+3.0	15
4	NAC Breda	8	9.8	6.9	+2.9	13
5	MVV	8	6.7	3.8	+2.9	16
6	Jong PSV	9	8.5	5.7	+2.8	12
7	Den Bosch	7	9.6	7.0	+2.6	7
8	Vitesse	8	8.0	6.8	+1.2	13
9	Jong AZ	9	6.9	5.7	+1.2	13
10	Almere City FC	8	7.2	6.1	+1.1	16
11	Roda	8	8.1	7.2	+0.9	15
12	Waalwijk	8	4.8	4.6	+0.2	13
13	FC OSS	8	5.3	7.3	-2.0	6
14	De Graafschap	7	5.4	7.6	-2.2	4
15	Jong Ajax	9	8.4	10.8	-2.4	8
16	VVV Venlo	8	5.7	8.9	-3.2	15
17	Helmond Sport	8	2.6	6.2	-3.6	8
18	Jong Utrecht	9	5.4	9.6	-4.2	7
19	FC Eindhoven	8	3.9	8.2	-4.3	10
20	Dordrecht	8	5.0	10.7	-5.7	7