Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Primera División / San Carlos vs CS Cartagines

Prediction Audit: San Carlos vs CS Cartagines Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Carlos San Carlos
Sep 21, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
CS Cartagines CS Cartagines

The model missed the final outcome (San Carlos win 1–0).

The model had projected CS Cartagines at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CS Cartagines San Carlos ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: San Carlos +2.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
San Carlos 31.0% 28.6% +2.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 31.7% -2.1 pp Aligned
CS Cartagines 39.5% 39.7% -0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was San Carlos win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was San Carlos win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · San Carlos 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · CS Cartagines 39.5%
    • xG · San Carlos 1.21 — CS Cartagines 1.39
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · San Carlos 3.33 · Draw 3.01 · CS Cartagines 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · San Carlos 28.6% · Draw 31.7% · CS Cartagines 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · San Carlos 3.33 · Draw 3.01 · CS Cartagines 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · San Carlos 28.6% · Draw 31.7% · CS Cartagines 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result San Carlos win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8834933

Closing Odds 3.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Carlos win · San Carlos 1–0 CS Cartagines
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: San Carlos vs CS Cartagines
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): San Carlos 1.21 — CS Cartagines 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Saprissa 9 7 0 2 21
2 CS Cartagines 9 6 0 3 18
3 Sporting San Jose 9 5 2 2 17
4 San Carlos 9 5 0 4 15
5 LD Alajuelense 9 4 2 3 14
6 Inter San Carlos 9 4 2 3 14
7 Puntarenas FC 9 3 2 4 11
8 Perez Zeledon 9 2 2 5 8
9 CS Herediano 9 2 1 6 7
10 Escorpiones Belén 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Saprissa 9 20 10 +10 21
2 CS Cartagines 9 18 10 +8 18
3 Sporting San Jose 9 16 8 +8 17
4 LD Alajuelense 9 15 10 +5 14
5 Inter San Carlos 9 9 12 -3 14
6 San Carlos 9 8 9 -1 15
7 Puntarenas FC 9 8 13 -5 11
8 CS Herediano 9 8 14 -6 7
9 Perez Zeledon 9 7 14 -7 8
10 Escorpiones Belén 9 6 15 -9 4