Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Primera División / Puntarenas FC vs CS Cartagines

Prediction Audit: Puntarenas FC vs CS Cartagines Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Puntarenas FC Puntarenas FC
Sep 06, 2026 - 22:00
1 1.26
3 1.34
xG Accuracy: 59%
CS Cartagines CS Cartagines

AI correctly predicted the CS Cartagines win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CS Cartagines CS Cartagines ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +2.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Puntarenas FC 33.3% 35.2% -1.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.1 pp Aligned
CS Cartagines 37.1% 37.2% -0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CS Cartagines win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (CS Cartagines win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Puntarenas FC 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · CS Cartagines 37.0%
    • xG · Puntarenas FC 1.26 — CS Cartagines 1.34
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Puntarenas FC 2.71 · Draw 3.46 · CS Cartagines 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Puntarenas FC 35.2% · Draw 27.6% · CS Cartagines 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Puntarenas FC 2.71 · Draw 3.46 · CS Cartagines 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Puntarenas FC 35.2% · Draw 27.6% · CS Cartagines 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CS Cartagines win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6374936

Closing Odds 3.46
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CS Cartagines win · Puntarenas FC 1–3 CS Cartagines
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Puntarenas FC vs CS Cartagines
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Puntarenas FC 1.26 — CS Cartagines 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 48.4% · Probability edge: -0.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Saprissa 9 7 0 2 21
2 CS Cartagines 9 6 0 3 18
3 Sporting San Jose 9 5 2 2 17
4 San Carlos 9 5 0 4 15
5 LD Alajuelense 9 4 2 3 14
6 Inter San Carlos 9 4 2 3 14
7 Puntarenas FC 9 3 2 4 11
8 Perez Zeledon 9 2 2 5 8
9 CS Herediano 9 2 1 6 7
10 Escorpiones Belén 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Saprissa 9 20 10 +10 21
2 CS Cartagines 9 18 10 +8 18
3 Sporting San Jose 9 16 8 +8 17
4 LD Alajuelense 9 15 10 +5 14
5 Inter San Carlos 9 9 12 -3 14
6 San Carlos 9 8 9 -1 15
7 Puntarenas FC 9 8 13 -5 11
8 CS Herediano 9 8 14 -6 7
9 Perez Zeledon 9 7 14 -7 8
10 Escorpiones Belén 9 6 15 -9 4