Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Primera División / LD Alajuelense vs Deportivo Saprissa

Prediction Audit: LD Alajuelense vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

LD Alajuelense LD Alajuelense
Sep 06, 2026 - 02:00
0 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
Deportivo Saprissa Deportivo Saprissa

The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo Saprissa win 0–2).

The model had projected LD Alajuelense at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 LD Alajuelense Deportivo Saprissa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -1.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
LD Alajuelense 35.2% 33.6% +1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 31.6% -1.9 pp Aligned
Deportivo Saprissa 35.2% 34.8% +0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Deportivo Saprissa win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned LD Alajuelense; match finished Deportivo Saprissa

Market lesson

The full-time result was Deportivo Saprissa win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · LD Alajuelense 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo Saprissa 35.2%
    • xG · LD Alajuelense 1.30 — Deportivo Saprissa 1.30
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · LD Alajuelense 2.84 · Draw 3.02 · Deportivo Saprissa 2.74
    • Implied 1X2 · LD Alajuelense 33.6% · Draw 31.6% · Deportivo Saprissa 34.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · LD Alajuelense 2.84 · Draw 3.02 · Deportivo Saprissa 2.74
    • Implied 1X2 · LD Alajuelense 33.6% · Draw 31.6% · Deportivo Saprissa 34.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Deportivo Saprissa win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 31/100
Monitoring Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6320186

Closing Odds 3.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportivo Saprissa win · LD Alajuelense 0–2 Deportivo Saprissa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: LD Alajuelense vs Deportivo Saprissa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): LD Alajuelense 1.3 — Deportivo Saprissa 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Saprissa 9 7 0 2 21
2 CS Cartagines 9 6 0 3 18
3 Sporting San Jose 9 5 2 2 17
4 San Carlos 9 5 0 4 15
5 LD Alajuelense 9 4 2 3 14
6 Inter San Carlos 9 4 2 3 14
7 Puntarenas FC 9 3 2 4 11
8 Perez Zeledon 9 2 2 5 8
9 CS Herediano 9 2 1 6 7
10 Escorpiones Belén 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Deportivo Saprissa 9 20 10 +10 21
2 CS Cartagines 9 18 10 +8 18
3 Sporting San Jose 9 16 8 +8 17
4 LD Alajuelense 9 15 10 +5 14
5 Inter San Carlos 9 9 12 -3 14
6 San Carlos 9 8 9 -1 15
7 Puntarenas FC 9 8 13 -5 11
8 CS Herediano 9 8 14 -6 7
9 Perez Zeledon 9 7 14 -7 8
10 Escorpiones Belén 9 6 15 -9 4