The model missed the final outcome (San Carlos win 1–0).
The model had projected CS Herediano at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 CS Herediano San Carlos ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Carlos | 28.8% | 33.5% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 30.2% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| CS Herediano | 41.9% | 36.2% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates CS Herediano's win probability at 41.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.2%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was San Carlos win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CS Herediano.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned CS Herediano; match finished San Carlos
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on CS Herediano by 5.7 percentage points (36.2% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Carlos 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · CS Herediano 41.9%
- xG · San Carlos 1.16 — CS Herediano 1.44
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Carlos 2.84 · Draw 3.15 · CS Herediano 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · San Carlos 33.5% · Draw 30.2% · CS Herediano 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Carlos 2.84 · Draw 3.15 · CS Herediano 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · San Carlos 33.5% · Draw 30.2% · CS Herediano 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Carlos win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | San Carlos | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Perez Zeledon | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | CS Herediano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 9 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | San Carlos | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Perez Zeledon | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
