AI correctly predicted the CS Cartagines win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 CS Cartagines CS Cartagines ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS Cartagines | 44.6% | 59.1% | -14.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.5% | 24.4% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Inter San Carlos | 26.9% | 16.5% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates CS Cartagines's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.6%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CS Cartagines win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about CS Cartagines than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CS Cartagines higher (59.2% vs model 44.6%, 14.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CS Cartagines win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CS Cartagines 44.6% · Draw 28.5% · Inter San Carlos 26.9%
- xG · CS Cartagines 1.38 — Inter San Carlos 1.22
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 22:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CS Cartagines 1.60 · Draw 3.88 · Inter San Carlos 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · CS Cartagines 59.1% · Draw 24.4% · Inter San Carlos 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CS Cartagines 1.60 · Draw 3.88 · Inter San Carlos 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · CS Cartagines 59.1% · Draw 24.4% · Inter San Carlos 16.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CS Cartagines win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | San Carlos | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Perez Zeledon | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | CS Herediano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 9 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | San Carlos | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Perez Zeledon | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
